The Statistics of Nessie

Dr. Charles Paxton is giving a talk on the Loch Ness Monster entitled "A Statistical Look at Nessie" as part of the Edinburgh International Science Festival. A bit short notice this as it is tonight at 8pm, but if you are in the area, check it out.

Details can be found at this link.

Charles gave a similar talk last year at the Edinburgh Fortean Society but that was related to his main interest of Sea Serpents. I am a bit of a graphs and stats man so have always been interested in what patterns may (or may not) emerge from such studies.

POSTSCRIPT: Just back from the talk and have to say that it was very good. Charles takes the line that even though he doesn't think there is an exotic beast in Loch Ness, that does not mean the anecdotal "data" is not amenable to the scientific discipline of statistical analysis.

Charles has probably the biggest database of sea serpent sightings (for which he does think the door is open for exotic species in the wide and deep oceans) and has applied various studies to them. For this talk he outlined his preliminary observations for a study of the Nessie database.

His work is not complete and to this point he has subjected only about 250 sightings to analysis. But what he found turned out to be counter-intuitive and contrary to the studies by such people as Richard Wiseman and their work on eyewitness testimony and reliability. What that actually means he was not sure and the study has yet to be completed with less than half the database being processed.

Once he completes the study, it will go out as a scientific paper which I wait for with interest.

Forthcoming Book on Frank Searle?

I am just back from a rather damp visit to Loch Ness, but I will post more on that later. When I got back I powered up my daughter's Kindle and it downloaded the new e-version of Paul Harrison's "The Encyclopaedia of the Loch Ness Monster". Well done, Paul, on another good job. I posted a review on amazon.co.uk which I reproduce here.

I already have the hardback version but when I heard Paul had revised and updated his book for Kindle, I borrowed my daughter's kindle and purchased it. It was not a disappointment and as I flicked thru the pages, I was again finding stuff new to me despite being someone who researches and blogs on the monster myself. Some indeed was quite revelatory and I wonder if Paul has a website or newsletter as I have failed to find any mention of him at all on the Internet?

There were a couple of errors in the text but this is to be expected of such a vast subject. Firstly, Rip Hepple still publishes his newsletter and I am sure the land sighting of Nessie at a place called "Sandy Point" actually occured at Loch Shiel. Also, some sightings are not recorded in the book which are visible on the Internet. I think particularly of Ala MacGruer's head and neck sighting last year.

All in all, a worthy book.

I would also like to flag up what Paul said in this book about his next work. It is to be a book on the notorious monster hunter, Frank Searle. I had checked Paul's entry in the encyclopedia about Frank and was astounded to learn that he had tracked down Frank to his home in Fleetwood in 2003 and had a long conversation with him about his life at Loch Ness. I say "astounded" because Andrew Tullis had tried to find him for his TV documentary ("The Man who Captured Nessie") but was too late as Frank had died some weeks before. Now it seems we will get a chance to hear what Frank Searle's last words to the Loch Ness Monster "community" were. I put the word "community" in quotes because as far as Frank and the other Loch Ness researchers were concerned, it was anything but a community and more like a battlezone.

Some of what Frank said to Paul is already known from his unpublished book, but Paul goes deeper in that he claims that somebody from over the other side of the loch sent some people round to Frank's caravan and threatened to kill him if he did not leave. It seems they also beat him up by way of proof of intent and after Frank had left, they tipped the caravan into the loch to make sure he never came back. Make of that what you will but I am sure Paul's book will make for fascinating reading. As a result of this conversation, Paul's attitude to Searle mellowed, I wonder if any of our attitudes will change? My own opinion on this has already been posted, there is more to this story than meets the eye and if the old adage "History is written by the Victors" is anything to go by, there will be more to come.

As an aside, Paul Harrison seems to be one of those Internet-invisible Loch Ness researchers. He says in the e-book that his Loch Ness Monster Research Society is still active but I know of no regular publications or web presence. If he is reading this, send me an email to lochnesskelpie@gmail.com and tell us about your current work and new book.

In fact, there is a group of 1990s researchers such as Richard Carter, Alastair Boyd, Paul Harrison and others who do not post to the Internet in any open way that I can see. It would be great if they could engage with other Loch Ness researchers in a more visible way and share their undoubted wisdom and knowledge. Books are one thing but these people are in a sense living books with a limited time span stamped upon them. The generation of monster hunters such as Holiday and Dinsdale were gone by the 1980s. The generation of leading skeptics who followed them will be gone in the next 10 to 20 years. Who will that leave for the next crop of enquiring minds? In that light, the Carters, Boyds and Harrisons of this world who were believers in a large creature in Loch Ness need to make their presence more visible in this Internet age.

First Nessie Sighting of 2012?

Has Nessie come out of hibernation at last? From Gary Campbell:

A local man travelling south on the A82 road at 5.15pm on Wednesday 4th April reported seeing a circular whirlpool like disturbance on the otherwise flat calm loch. The disturbance was near the middle of the loch just south of Urquhart Castle. He said it was similar to the disturbance that is caused at sea by bait fish being forced to the surface by larger predators. There was no boat traffic in the area at all.

Just in time for Monster Hunting Season! I await further information on this particular event.

This reminds me of another strange vortex like sighting back in 1979 - link.

UPDATE: Dick Raynor offers an interesting explanation in that the whirlpool may have been one of those fast moving boats that run from Fort Augustus to the castle where they do a U-turn to head back south. These boats are particularly noisy and throw up quite a bit of water due to their fast movement. I was watching them myself this weekend at Loch Ness.

I would say that this would produce a semi circle rather than a full circle followed by an obvious and clear boat wake to indicate its origin. It seems somebody needs to photograph one of these U-turns and ask the witness if it bears any resemblance to what they saw. Over to Gary Campbell?

Nessie Hunting Season Approaches!

Monster hunting season approaches and it is time to load up and head to the Highlands. So, is it time to douse the inflatable plesiosaur in fish oil, erect the 30 foot steel cage and practise some extremely convincing Nessie mating calls? And if Nessie tarries in surfacing, perhaps I should pack away some bottles of single malt whisky to speed up her appearance?

Not quite, not quite. In fact, when I head north to Loch Ness in the weeks ahead, none of the above will be in the packing (though the whisky is tempting and the cage won't fit in the car).

To be truthful, the equipment of the modern day Nessie hunter has a bit more technical savvy and complexity to it. I still pack the camcorder, binoculars and camera but as I pointed out in my previous hunting update, the armoury now includes, amongst other things, infra-red trap cameras. These devices are much beloved of Bigfoot hunters and that aforementioned update tells how I got on back in July.

In fact, I didn't tell all of what I did last year. I strapped the game camera round the old tree again in October and left it for about a month before I came back for it. Thankfully, no thieves had found and nicked it and so I plugged the SD memory card into my PC at home to see what advance I had on the 18 pictures over 10 days in July. The answer was 674 pictures over 25 days!

Why the great leap in images? The answer was the difference between July and October. The weather was rougher and every time a half decent wave broke on the rocks near the camera, the motion detect firmware kicked in to take a picture (example below). So, it was basically taking a picture on average every hour and this was not quite what I had planned for it. It was meant to trigger when something a bit bigger passed by. Anyway, I plodded through all these photos basically showing the same thing - a rough loch. Nothing I could see that was Nessie-like. I don't think this type of time lapse photography has much use at Loch Ness - when the creature surfaces, it is usually for a brief time and at inconclusive distances. The point of a trap camera is to trigger when something with motion and/or heat draws near. Clearly, July is better than October for camera conditions. However, for the next trip, the camera will be placed in what I think will be a better position and I will update you accordingly.




I also have a second and better camera trap from Reconyx (pictured below). It is the HC500 model and offers 1080p Hi-Def resolution images and more importantly rapid repeat image taking. They retail for about $450 but will cost more in the UK due to the mark up imposed by importers. The slower Wildgame Innovations camera can only do one image per minute whereas the HC500 can do up to two images per second onto a 32Gb SD card. Clearly, if an uncertain object comes into view, a lot more of its nature can be ascertained from a sequence of rapid multiple images rather than just one snapshot. The only problem for me is that it cost a lot more than the Wildgame and so I am less inclined to leave it at Loch Ness at the mercy of anyone who finds it! But I will use it during my short stay and leave the Wildgame model longer term.

The other aspect of last year's hunt was night vision binoculars. I own a Yukon Ranger Pro 5x42 Digital Night Vision Binocular (below) and they retail brand new for £600 or so (I got mine second hand). The "5" refers to the magnification and the "42" to the size of the objective lens in mm. This item is not like an ordinary pair of binoculars as it uses CCD technology to capture and boost the image to the eyepiece. Now night vision scopes are nothing new and indeed have been used at Loch Ness before. However, they are becoming cheaper and come with more features.

The range of viewing is up to 600m with a pixel resolution of 510x492 but the image quality very much depends on ambient conditions. The one feature that mainly motivated me to buy this was the composite video output port. In other words, what you see through the eyepiece is also sent to this port and a simple cable allows this to be attached to a recording device. That device can be a laptop with a composite to USB converter or a mini-DVR (which is more portable in the field).



Now the reason for the night vision scope is due to my belief that the Loch Ness Monster is mainly a nocturnal creature. This stands to reason as the beast lives practically all its life in dark, cold conditions. Therefore, excursions to the surface (and land) are IMO more likely at night time. This idea has indeed led to some night time experiments in the past. I think particularly of the searchlight experiments of the Loch Ness Investigation Bureau in the 1960s.

However, my main aspiration lies in the ultimate target - a photograph of the Loch Ness Monster on land. That kind of picture would be more decisive than something taken in the water - if the right equipment and conditions are fulfilled. It is my own belief that the creature comes onto the shore (and beyond) more frequently that we think. I say this because of the creature's sensitivity to light and sound. It is nocturnal and it also retreats at overt levels of noise. When it comes to terrestrial sightings, that means it prefers night time and quiet roads. That may still make land visitations very infrequent and so I am planning a strategy that maximises the chances of getting that "ultimate" shot.

It may takes years to get that picture, but then again I might get lucky. On the other hand, surface water and underwater surveillance have proved useless due to the murkiness of the water, the huge size of the loch and the fact that the creature unsurprisingly does not show enough of itself for proper study and identification. These techniques have had a go for almost 80 years, time for some lateral thinking and a new approach.

But going back to the night vision binoculars, I did a trial run back in October at a quiet spot near Dores Bay at about 7pm when it was pretty dark. I must admit it was a bit creepy walking about a dark beach alone in the belief that the loch holds one or more 40 foot carnivores that have been known to go on land. Obviously I survived to tell the tale!

I set up the binoculars on a tripod and fed the video output to a laptop which was running some video capture software. I then camouflaged it, pointed it at the loch and went away for a few hours. A short clip of the video capture is show below.

The first point is that it is dark and that leads to a loss of clarity if something did pass by. There was however a main source of infrared/light across the loch at the Clansman Hotel whose presence made me somewhat ambivalent. The advantage was that any object passing in front of the lights would have a more discernible outline. The disadvantage was my concern that dark objects would appear darker with these lights behind them. However, if something had come on shore in front of my setup, I am sure (based on me standing in front of the binoculars) it would have some reasonable clarity.

But light levels are a problem compared to daylight. In mitigation of this, Yukon add what they call an IR laser illuminator to the binoculars. This is essentially a high powered infra-red laser that helps light up the field of view in the infra-red spectrum. The advantage is obvious as IR light reflected back to the binoculars makes for a clearer scene. It does have two drawbacks. The first is that the illuminator consumes more power and eats into the batteries (battery lifetime reduces from 10 to 3 hours). The second is that its range is limited which is not much use further out on the loch.

In that respect, I invested in a separate and more powerful 45mW IR scope (below) which can fit neatly onto the top of the binoculars and gives a claimed 12 battery lifetime. The stated range is 450 meters with a light spot size of 10-70 minutes of arc. If one looks through the binocular eyepiece, the laser beam appears as a diffuse spot illuminating a certain area (as does the inbuilt illuminator). But we must remember all devices will give a diminishing return proportional to the inverse square of an object's distance. So like daylight sightings, one is still dependent on the creature putting in a relatively close appearance for better results.




The second issue was battery life as connections to the National Grid were not exactly in abundance on the shoreline. I had the binoculars, its IR illuminator and the recording device all on rechargeable batteries and the binoculars proved to be the weakest link as they ran out first. The binoculars lasted a maximum of three to four hours while the laptop could last up to eight hours. So it looks like the illuminator indeed limits binocular life. One help is to attach the aforementioned laser scope and turn off the binocular's internal one to save battery time. Secondly, use the longest life batteries available (I would note the trap cameras have no problem with battery life as the Wildgame Innovations was still active after 25 days and 674 snaps).

As it happens, I am still working through the three hours or so of binocular video, it is pretty boring and hard on the eyes. The video capture file for this length of recording comes in at about 8Gb because it was a continuous recording.

What I hope to use for the first time on this trip is my Secumate mini-DVR. Laptops are fine but a bit cumbersome and fragile for this kind of work. The mini-DVR is compact, rugged and can fit into your pocket. Our Bigfoot hunters love these things as you can plug it into the video out port, put it in your pocket and start roaming around the forest on foot. That is a night time scenario I might have a go at but the whole point of the exercise just now is to set something up and let it run automatically while you sleep.

The unit can auto-detect PAL or NTSC video formats and can record on schedule, manual or motion detect. The latter mode is the important one for me as it soaks up less SD memory and battery time. The motion detect record mode has three settings. The first is the area to monitor for motion. This is achieved in configuration mode by blocking out the parts of the area not to be analysed. This is a useful feature for possibly a fixed station video where false signals such as moving branches and breaking waves are known. But for one off placements, I will just set it to maximum coverage but make sure moving objects are kept to a minimum.

The second setting is motion detect sensitivity. In other words, does the mini-DVR trigger when a midge flies past or something a bit bigger (as it is seen in the field of view)? A bit tricky this one, so for now I will just use the default setting.

Finally, there is the setting for how long to record on a motion trigger. I set this to the maximum of 30 seconds which may seem not a lot but if the object continues to move then the DVR will just keep adding 30 seconds to the overall recording.

I plugged the mini-DVR into the video component output of my standard analogue camcorder and all looks well but the final experiment will involve the night scope on a tripod.

So the game is afoot once more as I plan for the first of hopefully several trips this year. Wish me luck as I go in pursuit of the Loch Ness Monster!

Other Lake Monsters

This is a general post linking to past postings which dealt with lake and sea monsters beyond Loch Ness. As time progresses more relevant articles will be cross referenced here.

This mainly deals with modern sightings of alleged strange creatures. For folklore and older stories click through to the Water Horses and Kelpies article.

Lagarflot, Iceland - here

Loch Oich, Scotland - here

Loch Morar, Scotland - here  and here and here.

Loch Awe, Scotland - here

Loch Duich, Scotland - here

Loch Ulladale, Scotland - here

Derwentwater, England - here

Lake Windermere, England - here

Cadborosaurus, British Columbia - here

Sea Serpent Carcasses in Spain and France - here

Long Necked Seals - here

Lake Labynkyr, Russia - here

Mokele-mbembe - here

The Beast of the Beauly Firth - here

Lake Okanagan - here 

The Creature of Findhorn Bay - here

Sandra Mansi's Painting of Champ - here

The Loch Leven Monster - here

Whales in Scottish lochs - here

The Corrie Creature - here

Loch Ness One Hundred Years Ago

I saw this century old postcard on eBay and wondered if Loch Ness was really such a quiet place before the Nessie craze started twenty years later. Mind you, if anyone saw a strange, triangular hump back then, this photo would no doubt provide a ready explanation. As an aside, there are three references to strange things being seen in (and out of) Loch Ness in 1912.

The ebay listing said: "Published by W. Fraser, Photographer, Lochend, Inverness. Postally used 1912". First to reach Fort Augustus wins the prize?

The Rip Hepple Nessletter Archive

In the 1970s, long before the Internet, there were mainly four ways of finding information on a subject. Three of these were books, magazines and newspapers. The fourth was newsletters. The problem was simple enough, once a book was published it was immediately out of date. New information would be published at irregular intervals in magazines and newspapers but the problem was finding out when and where such items were put on the newsstand. Some got round this by subscribing to newspaper clipping services but others subscribed to newsletters.

The newsletter was a popular publication back then and still is now being a tried and tested concept. An individual qualified in a certain subject would collate and analyse information for a group of like minded individuals. The newsletter would be sent by post usually monthly or quarterly to keep the subscriber base up to date on what was happening in the chosen field.

So it was no surprise that in the 1970s the popular subject of the Loch Ness Monster also had its share of newsletters. Well, I actually only know of two such newsletters. The first was by Frank Searle and if anyone can send me paper/scanned copies that would be appreciated. The second and best however was written and published by Rip Hepple.

Rip had been visiting the loch since the early 1960s and was a member of the Loch Ness Phenomenon Investigation Bureau throughout that time. When that group disbanded, he had established a network of contacts which stood him in good stead to start a newsletter in 1974 which he appropriately called the "Nessletter".

Encouraged by such people as Tim Dinsdale (who also proofread draft copies), the first issue came out on February 1974 under the umbrella of his "Ness Information Service". As of today, it has now reached issue number 158 and continues to be published at irregular intervals.

The advantages were obvious. Subscribers would be kept up to date on sightings, personalities, expeditions, Nessie theories and other lake cryptids. Rip's network of colleagues and subscribers would also inform him of items that could be disseminated to the whole group.

There was also the social networking element as subscribers advertised their forthcoming trips to Loch Ness and later reported back their experiences. Finally, anything relevant to the Loch in a broader sense would also make its way to print.

With that rich seam of information in mind, I phoned Rip and suggested the idea of a digital archive for his past newsletters. To my great pleasure, he was agreeable to the idea and has kindly given his consent for a number of issues to be digitised and made available to other Loch Ness Monster enthusiasts.

The process of digitisation is simple enough (albeit time consuming). The paper copy is scanned to a JPEG file, it is then uploaded to Google Documents in a structured way and then the Internet link to each issue is created and published here below.

The work is ongoing as I think only half of what Rip has consented to be digitised was in my hands. Also, an index needs to be added to guide readers to specific topics. Nevertheless, what is currently available adds up to over 200 pages in 53 issues (I think the content easily exceeds that of my own blog).

In some ways, the Nessletter is THE most important document available on Loch Ness and its Monster for its chronicles a phenomenon, its abode, followers and critics in a continuous manner for nearly 40 years now. Quite simply, a unique publication such as this should not be allowed to disappear from view. If you want a full perspective on the phenomenon that is the Loch Ness Monster, then Nessletter is a requirement.

The current archive extends from 1975 to 1985 with the aim of stopping at 1994. To subscribe to the latest issues, send a letter to Rip at the following address.

Subscription rates are: £3 (UK) or $10 (USA)

R.R.Hepple
7 Huntshieldford
St John's Chapel
Weardale
Co Durham
DL13 1RQ
United Kingdom

Note that the newsletters remain under Rip's copyright. Enjoy the archive, let me know of any issues and I will post updates as and when they are added. Also note that since Google moved to Google Drive that you are likely to be greeted by a thumbnail of the JPEG and not a readable image. In that case, right click on the image and select "View Image" which should give you what you want.

No.1 January 1974 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.2 March 1974 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.3 May 1974 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.4 July 1974 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.5 October 1974 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.6 December 1974 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.7 February 1975 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.8 April 1975 - link

No.9 June 1975 - link

No.10 August 1975 - link

No.11 October 1975 - link

No.12 December 1975 (Added 5th May 2012) - link 

No.14 February 1976 (Added 5th May 2012) - link 

No.15 April 1976 - link

No.16 June 1976 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.17 August 1976 (Added 5th May 2012) - link
 

No.18 October 1976 - link

No.19 December 1976 - link

No.20 February 1977 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.21 April 1977 (Added 5th May 2012) - link

No.22 June 1977 - link

No.23 August 1977 - link

No.24 November 1977 (Added 5th May 2012) - link 

No.25 December 1977 - link

No.26 February 1978 - link

No.27 April 1978 - link

No.28 June 1978 - link

No.29 August 1978 - link

No.30 October 1978 - link

No.31 December 1978 - link

No.32 February 1979 - link

No.33 April 1979 - link

No.34 June 1979 - link

No.35 August 1979 - link

No.36 October 1979 - link

No.37 December 1979 - link

No.38 February 1980 - link

No.39 April 1980 - link

No.40 June 1980 - link

No.41 August 1980 - link

No.42 October 1980 - link

No.43 December 1980 - link

No.44 February 1981 - link

No.45 April 1981 - link

No.46 June 1981 - link

No.47 August 1981 - link

No.48 October 1981 - link

No.49 December 1981 - link

No.50 February 1982 - link

No.51 April 1982 - link

No.52 June 1982 - link

No.53 August 1982 - link

No.54 October 1982 - link

No.55 December 1982 - link

No.56 February 1983 - link

No.57 April 1983 - link

No.58 June 1983 - link

No.59 August 1983 - link

No.60 October 1983 - link

No.61 December 1983 - link

No.62 February 1984 - link

No.63 April 1984 - link

No.64 June 1984 - link

No.65 August 1984 - link

No.66 October 1984 (Added 5th May 2012) - link 

No.67 December 1984 - link

No.68 February 1985 - link

No.70 June 1985 - link

No.71 August 1985 - link

No.72 October 1985 - link

No.73 December 1985 - link

No.74 February 1986 - link

No.75 April 1986 - link

No.76 June 1986 - link

No.77 August 1986 - link

No.78 October 1986 - link

No.79 December 1986 - link

No.80 February 1987 - link

No.81 April 1987 - link

No.82 July 1987 - link

No.83 August 1987 - link

No.84 October 1987 - link

No.85  December 1987 - link

No.86 February 1988 - link

No.87 April 1988 - link

No.88 June 1988 - link

No.89 August 1988 - link

No.90 October 1988 - link

No.91 December 1988 - link

No.92 February 1989 - link

No.93 April 1989 - link

No.94 June 1989 - link

No.95 August 1989 - link

No.96 February 1990 - link

No.97 April 1990 - link

No.98 July 1990 - link

No.99 August 1990 - link

No.100 November 1990 - link

No.101 March 1991 - link

No.102 June 1991 - link

No.103 August 1991 -  link

No.104 October 1991 - link

No.105 December 1991 - link

No.106 January 1992 - link

No.107 March 1992 - link

No.108 May 1992 - link

No.109 July 1992 - link

No.110 September 1992 - link

No.111 January 1993 - link

No.112 March 1993 - link

No.113 June 1993 - link

No.114 August 1993 - link

No.115 November 1993 - link

No.116 January 1994 - link

No.117 April 1994 - link

No.118 - TBD

No.119 October 1994 - link

No.120 January 1995 - link