Sunday 7 February 2016

Animal Behaviour at Loch Ness

The recent talk about giant eels at Loch Ness brought to mind a couple of old clippings I had intended to post.


A SWIMMING WHAT?

The first is taken from the Whitby Gazette dated the 28th September 1906. As I began to read, I was beginning to think we had a 1906 Nessie report on our hands, but read on.



Writing to the Scotsman, a correspondent at Drumnadrochit, says: — Two anglers from the hotel, fishing on Loch Ness, observed something swimming rapidly along the surface and making for the nearest point of the western shore. The surface was quite calm at the time, and the "object" showed a long and pronounced wake behind it. On rowing towards it, and when within a few yards, they were much surprised to see a very lively snake suddenly dart about six inches of head and body erect out of the water.

The creature showed no sign of alarm or desire to escape; but, with bold and menacing aspect, rather turned towards the boat, as if ready for attack. A stroke of the boatman's oar stopped its course, but, soon after being taken into the boat, it showed such energetic and unmistakable signs of reviving that it was promptly bandied overboard. The length, as it lay stretched on board, was estimated at a little over twenty inches: and that it was really an adder was verified by an examination of a preserved adder's skin. 

It is well known that adders take readily to the water, and swim across our mountain streams without hesitation, but to cross Loch Ness, as this creature was obviously attempting to do, is quite a different matter, for, at this point, near Urquhart Castle. the shortest distance across is a mile and half-a-furlong. When first seen, the adder was about a hundred yards from the western shore.

Not quite a Nessie, and people don't tend to mistake 20 inch animals for 20 foot animals. As it turned out, a video had appeared on the BBC news website showing this type of behaviour. The only mystery for me was the implication that this snake was close to finishing a one mile swim. Is that possible? I don't know.





However, one feature of this story caught my attention in relation to the giant eel theory. It was the statement:

... they were much surprised to see a very lively snake suddenly dart about six inches of head and body erect out of the water.

I assumed that a serpent like creature in water would find such a task difficult, but this does not seem to be the case.  Showing six inches out of twenty of its overall length scales up to a classic six foot neck out of a twenty foot body, except in the case of a giant eel, it is not a "proper" neck.

Does the scaling up in terms of maintaining positive buoyancy stack up? Does the difference between eel and adder physiology preclude even a twenty inch eel doing this? Of course, adders have lungs and eels have swimbladders. Which gives the greater positive buoyancy? That eels can achieve positive buoyancy is a given since they can get from their usual benthic dwelling to the surface and even onto land.

A cursory look around Google Images showed nothing of an eel raised in the erect fashion of our adder story. This has always been an argument against giant eel. That long, thin neck with its supine ability described by witnesses at Loch Ness goes counter to the thick set nature of the eel.


PIKE HUNTING

Moving onto another inhabitant of Loch Ness, this was printed in the 3rd January 1857 edition of the Warder and Dublin Weekly Mail, having been lifted from the Inverness Advertiser.




VORACITY OF THE PIKE.—The voracity of this fish is well known to all persons anywise acquainted with fresh water fishing. A most remarkable instance of it occurred lately near the western extremity of Loch Ness, where a brood of young ducks, thirteen in number, were gobbled up in a single day. In the same locality a few young turkeys went to the lake-side to drink, but immediately on their arrival at the water's edge, two or three of their number were snapped under water by this most incorrigible destroyer.— Inverness Advertiser.

This clipping also came to mind when someone on the Internet shot off a caricature of my idea that the Loch Ness creatures could predate land creatures. It seems that another denizen of the loch has already learnt this trick and put it to good use. After all, what pike could resist a meal of duck or turkey?

Of course, we assume they were pike and not more mysterious residents of the loch ... My idea of larger creatures doing the same to creatures bigger than ducks or turkeys does not seem so far fetched after all.




Tuesday 2 February 2016

Vote for the Best Nessie Sighting of 2015.

The Inverness Courier is now running their annual vote on the best Nessie sighting of 2015. This is run in conjunction with Gary Campbell's register of sightings website, which you can view here. If you click on this link to the Courier's review of the 2015 reports, you can then follow another link to their main news page and scroll to the bottom where the voting buttons should be on the right. Voting closes at the end of Sunday.

Perhaps you can tell from the photo below where my vote went, but I am not going to tell you what is and is not a genuine Nessie sighting (unlike some Popes of scepticism who don't recognise the phrase "in my opinion"). Use your own powers of judgement and make your choice.








Sunday 31 January 2016

Interview on the Loch Ness Monster

I had the pleasure of talking with Alyson Dunlop who runs the ADX-Files chat show yesterday and she has posted that 2 hour chat about Nessie today. Check it out at this link.




Thursday 28 January 2016

The Peter O' Connor Photograph (Part II)




Moving on from the first part of this series on the Peter O'Connor photograph, we now consider some further objections to this picture. In the previous article, the claimed findings by Maurice Burton to a hoax on the beach were at best found to have more natural explanations and at worst were twisting the data.

However, Burton raised further objections which sceptics have continued to promote 55 years on, but, as far as I can tell, have not been subjected to the same level of scrutiny as Peter O'Connor. Firstly, I will give you some background to the event by way of a site visit I did back in 2014.

Now, Peter O'Connor had stated that the photo was taken at his campsite one mile north of Foyers. Measuring one mile north of Foyers will not take you where you think you want to be. One mile due north of Foyers actually takes you to the opposite shore near the village of Grotaig. So the assumption is that O'Connor meant one mile north east up the shoreline. That takes you roughly to the spot on this map below.




To get to this area, I would normally just walk along the shoreline from the nearest appropriate parking spot on the Foyers to Dores road. However, the road is a long way from the loch here (see map) plus the Foyers Power Station is in the way of a shoreline approach. An attempted approach from the village of Inverfairgaig was considered, but in the end I went for the direct route.

I measured a parallel mile along the road which took us to Aleister Crowley's old stomping ground at Boleskine House. When we parked there, you would hardly think it was there, being blocked from view by dense, high foliage. They certainly like their privacy there. So, from here, a descent down to the lochside in as straight a line as possible would take you to about a mile from Foyers.

This involved cutting through the Boleskine graveyard and onto an open field. Caution was required here as we had to plough through various high ferns which are a known habitation of ticks, which carry the debilitating Lyme's Disease. Full length clothing and checking for insects after each field was mandatory.

Hopping over a fence increased the descent into more wooded territory until we came out on the service road for the Power Station. The shoreline was now in sight as we vaulted another fence into a fairly high gradient descent down more forest. A slip here after rain could see you toboggan on your backside all the way down to the loch (or into a tree)!

THE SITE

Finally, the loch broke out into view as you can see from the photograph below. The second photograph below that shows the steep wooded hillside we had just descended. The scene itself was unremarkable in terms of other shorelines we had trudged at Loch Ness. The usual shingle was underfoot with the occasional tree breaking forth from the stones. To the right the shoreline receded towards a headland while to the left, shingle gave way to grass as the power station came into view.


 


But where exactly had O'Connor pitched his tent? Even if his one mile estimate was only out 10% either side, it could be 160 metres either side of me (assuming I was actually one mile along the shoreline from Foyers (wherever the centre point of Foyers was deemed to be). However, on returning back to Edinburgh, I reread O' Connor's letter to Tim Dinsdale in which he said:

the tent was built so a view of the loch could be obtained in any direction, i.e. no walls except cliff ...

I saw nothing which resembled a cliff (if one understands by that a near vertical wall of rock), but I suspect I did not cover a large enough segment of the shoreline and he could have been referring to the high gradient hill behind. Walking on, I came across an old boathouse where I imagined Burton and his team had disembarked from the local man's boat to investigate the scene of the "crime".




The first exercise was to see what a photograph of the loch would look like if I crouched to the waist level in water that O' Connor had reported. Being the intrepid investigator that I am, I decided to stay as dry as possible and crouch at the shoreline to the same height. The picture is shown below, but it is of guidance use only since the O' Connor picture shows no background and I am not certain of the field of view in his photo compared to mine. A real comparison picture would use as close to the same make and model as O'Connor at the same time of day and year (with preferably the same weather conditions).



 
A survey of the immediate area did not take long to show up evidence of human activity. Like Burton, I found pieces of  plastic sacking, string and a stone circle. Evidently, this is an area which is frequently used for wild camping. Of course, any trace of O'Connor's campsite was long gone.





The site of this campfire was just beyond the boathouse on a slightly raised grass area in comparison to the shingle beach. If I had to choose a spot where O'Connor had pitched his bivouac, this would be a candidate. However, my reason for that is purely based on the hunch that campers would rather sleep on grass than shingle. I also say this having no idea whether there was any grass at this spot in 1960 as Burton only talks about sandy, pebbly beach in his letters and book.

Also, this area was right beside the boathouse and Burton makes no mention of any boathouse in any books or letters that I have examined. But it is possible that the boat house was built post-1960 as I do not see it in on pre-1960 ordnance survey maps (e.g. map above), but I do see it labelled on a recent map I purchased.


FURTHER OBJECTIONS

Lest I be accused of writing articles that some deem too long, I will begin to examine further objections to the authenticity of this photograph here and continue this into a third part of the series. Going back to Burton's book, he raises this objection regarding the photograph's authenticity on page 82: 

It was said to be half-light at 6 to 6:30am on 27 May, yet the sun rises at 4:30am on 27 May in that area. An hour later, even with a cloudy sky, these is sufficient light for photography at short range. 

A photographic test performed by Adrian Shine on the same day in 2010 at a point opposite Urquhart Castle using the same camera produced this photo at 0600. Clearly there is a distinct difference in the light levels between this and the O'Connor photograph.





So should I go "Ho Hum!" and go silent on this matter? No, let us explore this a bit further. The deduction critics make from this is that O'Connor lied about the time of the photograph for reasons that must have been deceptive. Therefore, the photograph (to quote Roy Mackal) is unacceptable as evidence. But, logically, there is not one but four conclusions that can be made about the time stated by O'Connor.

First, that he stated the correct time and it is the photograph that is being wrongly interpreted.

Second, he was misquoted concerning the time of the photograph, hence the discrepancy.

Third, he stated the time knowing it was not the correct time.

Fourthly, he stated the time believing it was the correct time.

I will come back to the first option later. The second option is credible as I have seen it happen before in other cases where journalists get sloppy about what they regard as the minor details of a case such as date, time, location, distance, etc. They may be minor to them, but they are important to Loch Ness researchers.

One case that springs to mind was the recent Jon Rowe photo where the Inverness Courier got the time wrong by about four hours. However, I do not think this is applicable here as Tim Dinsdale quotes a letter from O'Connor stating a time between 0600 and 0630. Other sources close to the time also give this time window.

The third option is the sceptics' position and it is a speculation which involves wilful deception on O'Connor's part. This naturally leads to an important question, why would he lie about the time? If the picture was taken about two hours earlier, why not just state that time? What is the problem with doing that? After all, surely O'Connor knew what the light levels were like at that time of day having camped there for days previously? Why make yourself a bigger target for the critics on publishing the photo?

The only reason offered is so that O'Connor and his accomplice could deflect from the scenario of setting up the hoax in complete darkness with no one around to see them. But why would that cause O'Connor to lie about the time? Why can't you set up a hoax at 0400 and still state the event as happening at 0400?

The rather insipid reply comes - so that he would not be charged with setting up a hoax in the dead of night. But surely he would be opening himself to a worse criticism by stating a time between 0600 and 0630? It seems you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. If the claimed motive for the claimed deception is weak, then so must be the deception. There is no point in stating a crime without a motive. I await a better reply from the critics of this photo regarding this supposed motive.

The final option suggests O'Connor made an honest mistake in his estimate of the time. Actually, there is more evidence for this option than the previous one. Note again O'Connor's words to Dinsdale:

Between 0600-0630 hours I left the camp .. and went N.E. for 100 yards ...

So what, you may ask? The problem is this suggests he did not know the time when he left his tent. In Dinsdale's book, O'Connor had two other sightings recounted. These were low grade sightings both seen at nearly a mile off. Regarding the first on May 24th 1960, he states:

Saw creature from 1605-1615 hours...

I think you would agree O'Connor is quite accurate in his times here. The second sighting took place on the 3rd July 1960 and is stated to have occurred at 1000; again no uncertainty or resorting to time ranges.

So why the uncertainty about times concerning the photograph? If he was the consummate liar of the sceptics, why not just state a precise time as with the other cases (indeed, as an alleged liar, why not jazz up those low grade sightings while he was at it)?

If O'Connor's critics feel at liberty to speculate on his motives and actions, then I think I have the right to do so as well. It is clear to me that O'Connor did not attempt to estimate the time of the sighting until after the event. If he had checked his watch when he first got out of the tent, he had a time reference for all that followed. More likely, he just got out of his tent without bothering to check the time.

Once the high tension and excitement of the event had got a grip on him, I doubt noting the time was high up on his list. The longer he put it off, the bigger the chance he had of getting it wrong. Of course, this is all speculation, just exactly as the sceptics' arguments on this point are. Choose your bias and make your choice.


SUNRISES

However, putting theories about times aside, there is another factor in all of this that has not yet been taken into account. Adrian Shine's photograph was taken in the area of Whitefield; Peter O'Connor's was taken in the area of Boleskine. Why is that significant, you may ask? The answer is that it is likely that at between 0600 and 0630, the sun had not yet risen on Peter O'Connor due to the higher terrain behind him. 

If, as I did, you actually visit the site of the photograph, the problem becomes clear. There is a large rising gradient from the shore to the B852 road. You actually cannot see or hear the road from the shore as it is hundreds of metres away and high up. At Adrian Shine's test location, the road is very close and there is no overhanging hill behind.

Let's do some calculations here. Using the average time of 0615 on the 27th May 1960, the direction (azimuth) and height (elevation) of the sun can be calculated. We get the pictures below with the sun's elevation at 10.18 degrees. The yellow line shows the azimuth of the sun at 66 degrees from north.






Consulting an ordnance survey map, we can estimate the various contours of the land along the azimuth and calculate whether they obscure the sun or not. For example, there is a 210m contour near the summit of Tom Na Garbhachd, about 1300m along the azimuth from the O'Connor site, but (typically of more distant peaks), this yields an angle of incidence of about 9.2 degrees, low enough to let the sun peek over its summit at an elevation of 10.18 degrees (and taking into account the sun's angular diameter of half a degree).

That situation changes when we consider the angle of incidence at the roadside near Boleskine House. According to the map, the road is about 93m above sea level. Since Loch Ness is 16m above sea level, we need to deduct this from the height to get 77m above the loch. The distance along the azimuth from road to shore is 375m to which we apply a simple trigonometrical formula to get the angle of the roadside hill as 11.6 degrees, or 1.4 degrees higher than the sun.


Obviously, if a hill is obscuring the sun, then a shadow will be cast. Since the elevation of the sun at 0615 was 10.18 degrees, that shadow length can be calculated via some more trigonometry. This gives a shadow length of 428 metres. Subtracting that part of the shadow that is within land (375m), gives us a shadow over the loch where Peter O'Connor was of 53 metres.



However, we can do better than that. A closer look at the map reveals a high contour further down the hill of 70m (according to sheet 416 of the OS Explorer Map series). That summit can be seen on the map below, marked with a star symbol.





Measuring along the line of azimuth takes it just past the peak at 0615 with a distance of 200m from peak to shoreline. However, the sun would have been just behind this 70m summit not long before. Applying the triangles again gives us an angle of incidence of 15.1 degrees, or nearly 4 degrees higher than the sun's elevation and a shadow length of 300m. Subtracting the 200m of hillside from the total shadow length gives a shadow on the loch of 100m.




If the hill angle was 15.1 degrees, the sun would not rise on Peter O'Connor until about 7am. Maurice Burton implied O'Connor was a liar when he said he took the photograph in "half light". From these calculations, it appears that O'Connor was indeed in half light courtesy of a hill behind him obscuring the sun and casting a shadow 100 metres beyond his position.


Gentle reader, if Peter O'Connor was truthful about this matter, what else was he truthful about?

This raises questions about the usefulness of Adrian Shine's site further north. That study said test photos were taken to determine light levels, but it is clear that these pictures are useless in making a determination of light levels are they were not in 100m shadow. Another trigonometrical look at the contours along the azimuth at the Whitefield site gives a clear line of sight to the sun and no hill obscuration (for the mathematically minded, these were sightings taken at height/distance/angle triplets of 244m/2100m/6.6, 92m/1500m/3.5, 448m/2600m/9.7).

Furthermore, the increase in darkness makes the role of a flashbulb more important, but no flashbulb was employed in the Shine experiment. In consideration of these facts, the photos taken at Whitefield cannot be considered as evidence in this matter.




REMOTE HILLSIDES


But leaving these matters aside for the moment, what about the dark background of the photograph? Surely some detail should have been visible of the opposite side? First of all, the photograph is undoubtedly cropped. In fact, just about every monster picture that appears in newspapers are cropped so that the object of interest fills as much of the print image as possible. The Surgeon's Photograph is a prime example as you can see below (indeed, some publications zoom in even more than this).





Applying the same criteria, we can see how the picture editor would have chopped out the sky to leave just darker hillside, as shown by the following overlay. As guidance, I use the photo I took at the site kneeling down to O'Connor's stated height when he took his picture. The ratio of sizes is consistent with those of the Surgeon's Photo.








Considering the dark background further, we have another photograph taken of the Loch Ness Monster that enjoyed similar circumstances to that of Peter O'Connor. I am referring to the Lachlan Stuart photograph. Both claimed to have been taken around 6:30am and sunrise for both occurred about the same time (0443 for the Stuart photo).



 

Looking at the photo we also see a rather dark, featureless hillside. Zooming into the hillside on the left gives us this picture below. I think you would agree there is not much to pick out (by the way, someone on facebook is going to auto-disagree with the use of this picture, I'll address that in the comment section - if they regurgitate).





Two further points are worthy of consideration, though they can be neither proved or disproved by sceptic and non-sceptic alike. Firstly, did the picture editor alter the brightness on the picture, thus making the background darker? This has certainly been done on other monster pictures and no one denies this to be the case. None other than Sir Peter Scott conceded this may have been done to this picture. However, without the original, uncropped, unedited photo, nobody can say either way.

Secondly, the weather conditions at the time of the O'Connor photo are not stated. One possibility is that a haar rolled down Loch Ness from the sea. Their effect can be very obscuring as these two pictures from 2014 show. Again, nobody knows whether such a fog was present or absent on that May morning in 1960.





TIM DINSDALE

It is a well known fact that Tim Dinsdale was a keen supporter of the O'Connor photograph when he first published his book "Loch Ness Monster" back in 1961. However, according to Steuart Campbell:

Dinsdale, who at first accepted O'Connor's story and published it, removed it from subsequent editions of his book after Mackal and Witchell had expressed doubts. In fact Mackal has rejected it as evidence.

This has been taken as evidence that even the leading monster hunter of the time had given up on O'Connor. However, this is simply not true. Fifteen years later, in Dinsdale's 1976 edition of "The Leviathans" he writes concerning a sea creature account:

... the description of it puts me in mind of the dome-shaped back of the LNM which (despite objections from the critics) was photographed at close range by flashlight in May of 1960 by a Mr. Peter O'Connor ...

Clearly, Tim was sticking to his guns and saw no obstacle in the argument concerning light levels. As a postscript, Henry Bauer, in his "The Enigma of Loch Ness", adds this footnote:

Dinsdale has told me that his subsequent omission of the photo resulted from O'Connor's attitude; upset by public criticism and ridicule of charges of fakery, O'Connor wanted to be left in peace. Dinsdale remains inclined to believe that the photo could really be of a Nessie.

Bauer's book was published one year before Dinsdale's death. It appears he was an advocate of this photo right to the end. So, what did Dinsdale have to say about light level objections? I quote from his book:

This is a reasonable question, but there is a perfectly simple answer to it, and it is vital that it should be understood. As every photographer knows, the human eye and a camera are not the same thing at all, and a scene that may appear fairly bright to the eye can be as black as pitch to the film in a camera, if the settings are wrong.

Correct film exposure is dependent primarily on three things—shutter speed, lens aperture, and film emulsion speed. If the aperture is too small for a given light intensity, the film will appear under exposed, or black. Now, Peter O'Connor's small and inexpensive camera was set at an absurdly small aperture, f.14, for the limited intensity of light one could expect at this time of year at 6.30 a.m.

I know this is so because I took dozens of light meter readings at about the same time in the morning a few weeks before the event, on the shore of Loch Ness; in conditions which, to my own eye, seemed bright enough, and I know that for the combination of film and shutter speed at his camera, an aperture of f.14 was completely inadequate; and that the film would, in consequence, be grossly under exposed.

I took some pictures myself in 'perfect visibility' at about this time at f.2.8 which is a far larger aperture—and the results are barely discernible. The reason why the human eye is so deceiving in terms of judging actual light intensity, is because it is such a marvellous automatic mechanism. The iris of the eye opens wide when light is poor giving the maximum light to reach the retina. The result is that the observer remains unconscious of even large degrees of changing light intensity—whereas the camera aperture is fixed at whatever setting is chosen. And if this is too small the film gets too little light and the image appears dark or black.

The second important thing about the picture is that Peter O'Connor used a flash bulb on his first successful picture of the Monster, and not on the second. In the first the Monster is highlighted, but the background remains black because it is out of range of the flash; and in the second the whole picture is a failure: completely black. This is all quite straightforward. People who have taken flashlight pictures out of doors in bad will recognize the black or underexposed background at once. It is inevitable, and explains the peculiar 'middle of the night' appearance. 

The Brownie Flash 20 camera I possess actually does not allow such fine tuning of the lens aperture and shutter speed. It has three settings - EV 13, 14 and 15. Dinsdale was confusing this 14 with an f/14. However, at a shutter speed of 1/50s and a film speed of 200, we're talking about f/18 using an EV calculator.

I would liked to have seen Dinsdale produce examples of these poor light pictures, but I guess publishers like to focus on the more sensational pictures. I agree with his assessment in this regard, it is now a matter of reproducing the conditions.


CONCLUSIONS

The main thrust of this article concerns the lighting in this photograph. A test picture taken in 2010 suggests a problem in the time O'Connor deceptively or unwittingly gave. Further calculations suggest this test picture has its own problems to address.

If O'Connor did indeed take his photo in the half-light of shadow, then the flashbulb becomes a factor in the investigation. And if the flashbulb becomes a factor, then the object which reflected its light back into the camera becomes a factor too. Neither of these were used in the 2010 test picture and the test is thus invalid.




The solution is to go to the actual site and take a series of photos with flashbulbs and a suitable object in the water. It would also be necessary to find the correct time that best reproduces the O'Connor photograph. The only unknown would be the weather conditions at the time. That is what has to be done. As you can see from the above picture, I have the same camera as O'Connor, along with original flashbulbs and film (whether they still work is another matter). What I do not have is a suitable object to reflect back the flashbulb light with an albedo similar to O'Connor's monster.

It is now a matter of going to Loch Ness and getting the job done properly.

The next instalment of this series focuses on some other less important objections and theories concerning the picture, including the strange case of the O'Connor canoe.


The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com

Monday 25 January 2016

What's Coming up this Year on the Blog

So 2016 has started and the usual plans are afoot for trips to Loch Ness and exposing the fallacies of sceptical pseudoscience and half baked arguments. These are the articles I plan to at least put out this year. Of course, others will follow as this article now brings the blog total to 452 articles!


PETER O'CONNOR



At least two more articles on this controversial photographs are to follow. If the sceptics jump up and down enough, a fourth may follow. If they scream, maybe a fifth!


HUGH COCKRELL

 


Between 1933 and 1960 we had what is known as the classic Nessie photos. Those black and white pictures from Hugh Gray to Peter O'Connor were the staple of many a Nessie book. I think Hugh Cockrell's is the last one I need to cover (and that is after five years of blogging). So it is well overdue an article that does it justice.


ARTHUR GRANT

 
The sceptics have been dissing this famous 1934 case for years now. It's time to see if they can take it as well as dish it out.


PETER MACNAB


A follow up article is planned for this famous picture gathering up my thoughts and further finds since I last wrote on it. In fact, I even plan to play the part of a sceptic in this one!





HUGH GRAY


 

When I first pointed out the fish like head in this picture, the best a leading sceptic could come out with was that he could see Elvis in the picture too. Real sharp thinking there. It didn't get much better after that. It's time for a revisit and new insights into this important photograph.


G. E. TAYLOR



A famous film, but only Maurice Burton saw it as he selfishly kept it to himself. Now we only have scraps, but I hope to add to the stock of knowledge this year. If I find it between now and then, I will be as excited as anyone.

That's it, but there will be more than this as we look forward into the 83rd year of the Loch Ness Mystery!






Saturday 23 January 2016

Nick Redfern's Book on Paranormal Nessies

I just saw that Nick Redfern's book, "Nessie: Exploring the Supernatural Origins of the Loch Ness Monster", has appeared on Amazon with a publication date of September 8th, 2016. I note the American site offers kindle and paperback versions, while the British site offers only kindle. I am sure that will change over time.




As an aside, I noticed Nick's book was categorized under "Religion & Spirituality" while the more biographical book "A Monstrous Commotion" was filed under "Social Sciences/Anthropology". It seems the subject of the Loch Ness Monster covers a plethora of disciplines.

BTW, is there a difference between "supernatural" and "paranormal"?

This also prompted me to produce this graph, it is the number of books and booklets published exclusively on the Loch Ness Monster or with a good part devoted to it since the 1930s on a decade basis. It is based on the list I maintain here but does not include reprints and revisions.



Not surprisingly, the 1970s was the top decade, boasting 23 publications with the 1980s second with 14. However, this decade looks set to grab second place with a current projected total of 10 going into this year and with another three years to go. The projections suggests we could end up with 16 books by the end of 2019. Perhaps this is not so surprising in this age of online self-publishing. Mind you, the 1970s had its fair share of tatty tourist booklets and boilerplate books.

 


 
 

Wednesday 20 January 2016

Poll on Existence of Loch Ness Monster

Hard on the heels of the latest news items about Gordon Holmes' video, the local Telegraph  and Argus newspaper ran a snap poll asking "Do you believe in the Loch Ness Monster?". In total, 45% said "yes" or double what I have seen elsewhere. Nice one, Yorkshire!





Tuesday 19 January 2016

New Record Depth for Loch Ness?

Has a new depth of 889 feet been recorded in Loch Ness, beating the established record of 754 feet by 135 feet? New sonar readings suggest so, but some third party verification may be required here. You may remember "Edward's Deep" of 812 feet which failed to stand up to verification, so some caution is required when side echoes from the loch all can "muddy" the waters.

What more interested me was this line, though I doubt we will hear more about it:

But two weeks ago, I got a sonar image of what looked like a long object with a hump lying at the bottom. It wasn't there when I scanned the loch bed later. 
 
Link to original story here and also here.






It has evaded capture for years, with dozens of alleged sightings and endless speculation about its whereabouts. 

But the hunt for the Loch Ness monster has just become even more arduous, after a retired fisherman used sonar equipment to show that it could be hiding at previously undiscovered depths. 
Tourist sightseeing boat skipper Keith Stewart, 43, claims to have found a crevice large enough for the phantom beast to be hiding in, about nine miles east of Inverness. 

Britain's deepest loch is Loch Morar, allegedly home to another elusive “water kelpie” Morag at 1017 feet. 
Loch Ness is the UK’s second largest, with an official maximum depth previously recorded at 754 feet. However, Mr Stewart says that his newly discovered crevice measures 889 feet deep, according to his state of the art sonar equipment. 

His colleagues at Jacobite Cruises, which operates sightseeing cruises down Loch Ness from Inverness, have labelled it “Keith's Abyss”. 

"I wasn't really a believer of the monster beforehand,” Mr Stewart said. 

“But two weeks ago, I got a sonar image of what looked like a long object with a hump lying at the bottom. It wasn't there when I scanned the loch bed later. 

"That intrigued me and then I found this dark shape about half way between the Clansman Hotel and Drumnadrochit which transpired to be a crevice or trench. 

“I measured it with our state of the art 3D equipment at 889 feet. I have gone back several times over the abyss and I have verified my measurements. 

"It is only about a few hundred yards offshore whereas previous sonar searches have traditionally been down the middle of the loch. 

"Searches of the monster have also been in those areas as well as Urquhart Bay so maybe the local legends of underwater caves connecting Loch Ness to other lochs and perhaps even the waters of the east and west coast are true.” 

Mr Stewart conceded that his discovery will “need more research” adding: “It is possible that an underwater earthquake has opened this up in recent times because the Great Glen lies in a well known fault in the earth's crust and tremors have been felt along it.” 

Adrian Shine, leader of the scientific research organisation The Loch Ness Project, said that he and his colleagues “may well take a look at the area” identified by Mr Stewart. 

However, he urged caution about sonar readings taken close to the edge of the loch. 

“I would be cautious [about Mr Stewart’s findings] because there is an anomaly which occurs with sonar readings taken close to the side walls called lobe echos, which can give misleading results about the depth. 

“It doesn’t matter how sophisticated your sonar equipment is, you can still get this anomaly.” 

Gary Campbell, president of Loch Ness Monster Fan Club and Registrar of Sightings said that Mr Stewart’s discovery “adds another dimension” to the search for the phantom beast. 

“We thought the loch was 810 feet deep and just had a 20 foot diameter hole at the bottom,” he said.

“Now we've discovered a whole trench that makes the loch nearly 900 feet deep which is twice the depth of the North Sea. There could be more trenches which make it deeper. 

"Loch Ness is part of a huge earthquake fault line that runs from Canada to Norway. In 2013, there was a 2.4 magnitude quake in the loch - this was when Nessie disappeared for a whole year for the first time since 1925.” 








More on Gordon Holmes and Giant Eels




Our Nessie man in Bradford, Gordon Holmes, continues to get publicity on his 2007 video of a strange object making its way up Loch Ness.His local newspaper has chimed in with a video of Gordon talking about his film as well as further information.

The article can be found here and it seems it was making sufficiently big headlines.



A LOCH Ness monster hunter from Shipley believes he could finally have helped solve the mystery of what really lurks beneath the water. 

A computer expert in the US has used advanced techniques to analyse a night-time film Gordon Holmes shot from a layby almost a decade ago. 

The analysist has now concluded the creature side-winding across the 800ft deep Scottish loch at about 6mph might in fact be a giant eel. 

On May 26, 2007 Mr Holmes, of Shipley, was about to to finish Nessie-spotting for the day when he had his 'lucky break' looking through binoculars and had to make a mad-dash for his camcorder.
The fascinating which appeared to show the black, long-necked monster-like creatures with flippers moving close to the surface swimming in the direction of Inverness, hit headlines worldwide ending in a media-frenzy. 

"There's been lots of opinions on what I filmed that night," said 63-year-old Mr Holmes, a retired university IT technician. 

"They do look eel-like on my film and I did say that back in 2007. One thing all the experts have agreed on is that my footage isn't fake." 

The film has been newly analysed by Bill Appleton, chief executive of US-based software firm DreamFactory, who was able to reduce camera shake and make the images clearer. 

Mr Holmes said: "Unless they discover some unknown creature from the depths of Loch Ness, I believe Bill has finally solved this major mystery in my life and the lives of many others. 

"He is not David Attenborough but he is an expert in his own field.". 

Mr Appleton has told leading Loch Ness investigators that Mr Holmes' footage had framed giant eels, concluding: "I believe they display a giant eel side-winding across the loch. 

"The animal is at least 10ft long, maybe 15f. You can see in some frames the classic, Plesiosaur neck, but this is just the eel moving away from the camera." 

Mr Holmes, who has featured in a TV show called Missing Evidence, plans to return to Loch Ness later this year with a new drone he has been test-flying over Ilkley Moor. 

He said: "Of course the mystery and intrigue will go on. 

"Unless I had concrete proof and the Loch Ness monster came out of the water, shook hands with me, then safely went back into the water I still can't be 100 per cent certain what it is and even if I was fortunate enough to get all of that on camera there would still be people who would not believe it.
"With progression of science and software we are getting closer to the truth but we might be narrowing it down to more realistic things." 

Mr Holmes' first visit to Loch Ness to try to unravel the legend was in 2003 after his mother Winifred died from Alzheimers. She had given him a tiny glass ornament of Nessie bought from a gift shop in Saltaire when he was 12 and he has been fascinated ever since. 

Equipment he has built so far in a bid to track the real Loch Ness monster has included a hydrophone to pick up sound signals in the water, a spy in the sky camera carried by ten helium-filled foil balloons and now a new drone and a special raft trialled out at sea off Bridlington which will carry a weather-system and a camcorder. 

"I will keep going back. My search isn't over yet," he said. 




Wednesday 13 January 2016

More on Infrasonic Nessies




In a previous post, I had looked at a theory proposed by Loch Ness researcher, Dick Raynor. This concerned the idea that infrasound emissions from resonating pipes below the roads around Loch Ness may have physiological and psychological effects on people around the loch. The implication being that this could partly explain reports of monsters in the loch.

It was also suggested that this resonant frequency of about 19Hz was also the resonant frequency of the human eyeball, causing it to vibrate and disturb peripheral vision. This was seen as having an effect on what people saw in the loch. The theory was also applied to other strange phenomena including even Bigfoot sightings.

As a postscript to all this, I was at a recent meeting of the Edinburgh Fortean Society where the subject of "paracoustics" or the link between infrasound and the paranormal was discussed by Steve Parsons who has just published a book on the subject.

All this began with Vic Tandy who claimed he felt and even saw strange phenomena when in an environment resonating at 19Hz. The route to the conclusion was based on an experience at his workplace and the story of his fencing sword resonating at this frequency.

As it turns out, Steve told us that the 19Hz story was misconstrued. Fencing swords do not resonate at 19Hz, more like ten times that frequency and Tandy's measurements turned out to be suspect as he had not taken the entire dimensions of the room into account when calculating the alleged frequency. Indeed, the environment around us is already filled with infrasonic waves and it is not unexpected to find 19Hz amongst a range of frequencies across the infrasonic spectrum.

The idea that the human eyeball resonates at 19Hz is also suspect. The background to the story came from NASA stress tests on astronauts. But the energy levels involved in this test were huge in order to mimic astronauts sitting on top of a Saturn V rocket, not driving over a roadside pipe! NASA were simply testing if astronauts could still see the dials on a control panel as their entire body was shaken in simulations of a rocket launch. Indeed, it turned out different shaped eyeballs have a range of resonant frequencies.

In other words, this has no relevance to Loch Ness, as does the idea that 19Hz is relevant to the Loch Ness Monster (Steve Parsons confirmed that paracoustic theories are not primarily visual based theories).

But this does not mean infrasound or even ultrasound are irrelevant to paranormal research. It is just that this narrow band around 19Hz can be safely discarded as being important. Whether other frequency ranges can affect human perception is an ongoing subject, but until something more solid and beyond the realm of speculation turns up, it is irrelevant to the Loch Ness Monster.

So what is the conclusion of all this? The role of infrasound on the Loch Ness Monster mystery is at best an interesting item of idle speculation and at worst another example of sceptical pseudoscience (or McScience as it is sometimes referred to).






Thursday 7 January 2016

Gordon Holmes' Giant Eel

Well done to Gordon Holmes, who took that intriguing 2007 video of a strange object in Loch Ness. He pressed on and now the Scotsman and Press and Journal have run the story on his further analysis of the video and his theory concerning the possibility that it is a giant eel.




Gordon is one of the good guys, sacrificing time, money and energy to go up to the loch multiple times in pursuit of the famous Loch Ness Monster. He continues in the tradition of an array of men and women who took up the challenge to try to capture that conclusive footage and confound the sceptics once and for all. He may yet be the one who gets that evidence; but, like me, I am sure he will be only too glad that anyone gets that final footage.

Good luck on your next expedition, Gordon.

More here.

Is Nessie a giant eel? More thoughts here.

The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com

Monday 4 January 2016

A Modus Operandi

I want to clarify something before I go onto the analysis of various photographs and films this year, such as the O'Connor, Cockrell and Taylor images. Clearly, such images are controversial and generate claims and counter claims.

The bottom line is how do you prove a photo or film depicts the Loch Ness Monster? Even when you have a purported close up shot of something consistent with eyewitness testimonies, you are going to get interpretations of the photograph that attempt to prove fraud (or, less likely, misidentification).

Despite what people will tell you about photos and films being objective data which lends towards objective analysis, this is not always the case (if at all). The reason for this is because all interpretations have a degree of subjectivity, be it in assumptions made about numbers or what a small, blurred section of an image is showing.

As you can see, guesstimation and blurriness are the antithesis of objective analysis. That's why when even so-called critical thinking is brought into this arena, you can assign large error bars to a lot of what passes for analysis. That, of course, applies to both sides of the debate. The trouble is, some people think they are immune from such things.

So, how do you prove a photo is a Loch Ness Monster? What is the acid test for monster? Long neck? Hump like an upturned boat? Shiny, leathery skin? All valid tests, but fakeable features to varying degrees (especially in this age of CGI). That, of course, does not mean every picture is a fake, but when these arguments are brought against a photograph or film, it is the motivation of the pro-Nessie analyst to answer them.

In fact, the main modus operandi of this blog in this regard is to disprove counter arguments against photos and films, or at worst expose their weaknesses. And, to borrow from Sherlock Holmes, having eliminated the improbable, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

Well, that is the ideal to aim for, but everyone is influenced by their internal prejudices and biases. There is nothing that can be done about that, and everyone who reads will make their own minds up.

As an aside, photos are also assessed on the basis of how consistent they are with the overall story. For example, I reject the so called "gargoyle" photo taken underwater by the Academy of Applied Sciences in 1975. The basis for this is simply that what this photo purports to show bears little resemblance to what eyewitnesses have described concerning the head and upper neck of the creature.

In fact, not all Nessie photos are created equal. We will all have our own ratings for each photo across time. I myself will rate such images on a personal scale taking into account arguments both for and against the image in question. For example, the Surgeon's Photograph is a fake to me, and on a for-against percentage rating, I would give it 20-80, meaning my opinion is that I am 80% certain of the arguments against it being real and give 20% to the arguments that it is real.

But there are pictures which I do regards as images of the Loch Ness Monster and I give them, on balance, positive ratings. So, I give the Hugh Gray photo a rating of 90-10 and for the Peter MacNab picture, I give 80-20. Nearer the line of indecision (50-50), I rate the so called F.C.Adams photo at 55-45, purely on the basis of the back story I unearthed last year.

And, of course, we have the many pictures which show distant wakes and blobs. They may be monsters or they may be something else. These will be near the 50-50 line as we simply do not have enough information to assess them. 

People who take a 100-0 or a 0-100 stance on many or all pictures probably need to ask themselves a few questions about what motivates their assessment of the evidence. Remember these points when I present various articles on Loch Ness Monster photographs and films.

The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com