Tuesday 12 March 2019

Nessie Talk on Midnight in the Desert




I will be joining Dave Schrader for some Nessie talk late tonight on his show. The details are below but anyone in the UK will have to be up at 6am on Wednesday!


Join me tonight LIVE on Midnight in the Desert with Dave Schrader
9pm – 12am Pacific Time (12am – 3am EST)
I would love to hear from you…
Lines will be Open: 480-571-3540
To listen click here: http://midnightinthedesert.com/roland-watson/



The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com
 

Wednesday 6 March 2019

First Nessie Picture of 2019?




The Nessie season appears to have kicked off with a new photo (above) purportedly of the Loch Ness Monster taken eleven days ago. The story from the Scottish Sun runs thusly:

THE Loch Ness monster appears to have become active once again with two apparent sightings in just five days after the beast had not been for a whole month. A woman from Manchester claims to have spotted and photographed the creature on February 23.

Lisa Brennan, 30, and her partner, Danny, 37, were driving near to Urquhart Castle when they made the first February sighting. Lisa's snap shows a L-shaped black object on the water which could be taken as the head and neck of Nessie.

She said the object disappeared shortly after she took the image. Lisa said today: “We were driving around the loch and as we got to Urquhart Bay, just before the castle, I spotted a dark object around 3ft tall above the water surface. “I shouted, ‘Oh my god I've just seen something.’ He slowed down the car, didn't believe me but each to their own. "By the time I had got the camera ready on my phone the object had lowered into the water so I only managed to get as much as I did on the photo as it then disappeared into the water.


“I made him turn around at the castle and go back to see if we saw anything else but unfortunately we didn't. Danny didn't see anything as he was driving, but said my reaction to what I saw was very convincing.”




On examination of the picture, it was my assumption that the two white dots further up may be seagulls or swans which implies the object of interest is not that big, even allowing for its closer proximity. The sandbank near the two swans/seagulls forms part of the Coiltie-Enrick estuary. Having said that, Lisa's estimate of three feet would back up that "small" feeling. The object submerged, which is normally a useful feature, but they then briefly departed from the scene to turn around which allows time for any bird or other water animal to fly off or swim out of view.

So, nothing to see here, move on. The first of the blobby nessies has arrived to continue the line of, at best, inconclusive pictures over recent years such as those taken by Natalie Hodgson, Isla Ross, Charlotte Robinson, the Locke family and so on. Poor mobile phone cameras, too far away objects and so on. The trouble is when something interesting surfaces close by (such as that by Ricky Phillips), a dose of toogoodtobetrueitis sets in plus close up shots lose the context of where they are, thus obscuring the overall picture. The happy medium between close proximity and background is something surprised witnesses are unlikely to control.

As an update, I could be more cynical and invoke the tree debris that was photographed in that area in 2017 when the Hayley Johnson picture was being discussed. It does have a curious resemblance to the object above, but is it still there? Of course, if it was a log, then our witnesses are not being  truthful about it disappearing. Hmmm.


 

Meantime, the Mirror newspaper consulted two resident Loch Ness experts, Adrian Shine and Steve Feltham, in the light of this latest report. It starts somewhat ambiguously in saying:

But both men say they have reached the disappointing conclusion that Nessie there never was a prehistoric monster living in the loch. And they claimed that the recent sighting, like the more than a thousand other Nessie sightings down the years, have a much less fantastic explanation.

Had Steve Feltham stopped believing in a monster in Loch Ness? The statement was actually a bit more nuanced as it referred only to a "prehistoric monster" which I presume is meant to encompass such long extinct creatures as plesiosaurs, basilosaurs and so on.  Yes, well I must admit I don't hold to those either. Steve was quoted on his giant catfish theory again and Adrian mentioned his old theory of sturgeons. 

As for this week's picture, let's hope things improve from hereon in and something akin to the picture below will turn up. Just make sure y'all get your vaccine shots for toogoodtobetrueitis first.





The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com



Thursday 28 February 2019

Pseudo-scepticism and the Loch Ness Monster




In my new book on photographs of the Loch Ness Monster, I take a different tack to the traditional works by pro-Nessie authors. In the past, photos were published, eyewitness tales were recounted and evidence for the monster was sought within the images. Today is the age of scepticism and various arguments brought against not some but all photographs arise and must be examined and challenged. You may say that is a good thing which encourages debate.

However, I would like to make a point that has led me to change my wording when it comes to addressing the arguments of sceptics against the existence of the Loch Ness Monster. To wit, I have now decided to label such people and their arguments as pseudo-sceptics and pseudo-scepticism. I do this in deference to real scepticism which one should seek to employ where possible at all times.

What is the difference you may well ask? In the context of the subject of this blog, pseudo-scepticism takes the position that there cannot be such a thing as the Loch Ness Monster (i.e. an exotic, large unidentified creature seen in the loch) and therefore any eyewitness report, photograph, film or sonar image must of necessity be deconstructed into an explanation based on known explicable events and objects, there is no room for monsters.

Note this is not the same as a person who disbelieves in the monster but still goes about their investigations in a true sceptical manner. This, I put to you, is not true scepticism which would attempt to maintain an open mind and assess such reports in a critical but unbiased and unprejudiced manner. Now pseudo-sceptics may claim to have an open mind on the subject, but their actions betray such words. This is demonstrated in several ways.

Firstly, it is a sign of pseudo-scepticism to maintain that none of the 2000+ known witnesses over 100+ years have accurately described what they claim as a large creature (unless it looks like a sturgeon). Apart from being a statistical improbability, it betrays a prejudice which proposes such a thing when other disciplines (e.g. history and jurisprudence) do accept eyewitness testimonies at face value but apply due and proper sceptical enquiry on an individual case by case basis.

Secondly, it is a sign of pseudo-scepticism when counter-intuitive explanations are offered for what eyewitness have seen or recorded. One classic example of this was the 1938 John McLean sighting of a 20 foot creature seen at 20 yards. One leading critic suggested he had seen a group of cormorants, despite the witness being an angler at Loch Ness whom we assume was familiar with such things. A second example was from another "expert" in these matters who used ad hominem tactics to suggest one group of eyewitnesses (the monks at Fort Augustus Abbey) were well known for imbibing too much and therefore should not be trusted.

Thirdly, it is a sign of pseudo-scepticism when illogical techniques (as opposed to explanations) are applied in the deconstructing of eyewitness reports. Refer to my article on "tricks of the sceptics" to see how it is more of the politician and the lawyer that prevails in an analysis than the logician and scientist.

Fourthly, it is a sign of pseudo-scepticism when they stick to the same repetitive arguments even when sufficient doubt has been cast upon them. This is because the primary purpose of a pseudo-sceptical argument is not scientific enquiry but to cast doubt and dismiss. So long as it achieves this, then it is useful and therefore is to be retained. Some examples are the long discredited vegetable mats and the "dog" explanation for the Hugh Gray photograph.

Fifthly, it is a sign of pseudo-scepticism when no recognition at all is made of studies made by cryptozoologists. The tactic is obvious in its deployment as no credence must be made to such people lest it is seen as a concession to cryptozoology. In fact, efforts will be made to portray cryptozoology as a danger to scientific enquiry.

Finally, it is a sign of pseudo-scepticism when an explanation is infallibly fashioned for every event and no room is made for the inconclusive. Indeed, it is a vanishingly rare thing for a pseudo-sceptic to say "I can't explain that". By making such an admission, they are not admitting to the existence of a large creature, but the confirmation bias that is deeply ingrained blocks even statements of such neutrality from coming out.

You may ask whether there is any sign of true scepticism in the field of Loch Ness Monster research? The answer is, of course, yes. People can follow the correct lines of enquiry and come to the best natural conclusions. Possessing a pseudo-sceptical attitude does not preclude viable explanations being made at points over time. However, it does not follow that instances of successful investigations is an exoneration of pseudo-sceptical attitudes and does not condone their tactics.

One final point is whether a person is a pseudo-sceptic or merely displaying the traits of pseudo-scepticism? It is a subtle point which may largely be in the eye of the beholder. But I would say that those who persist in indulging in pseudo-sceptical tactics may be justly called pseudo-sceptics.

Not surprisingly, when I put forward such a view elsewhere, the usual attempts at deflection ensued as the term "pseudo-cryptozoologist" cropped up. It's an odd term since cryptozoology is labelled as a pseudo-science, so does that make pseudo-cryptozoology a pseudo-pseudo-science?

Anyway, I was already aware of this antithesis of the pseudo-sceptic which is a cryptozoologist or "believer" who accepts everything as evidence and fits his arguments to make them so.  However, such a charge is lacking the force which is applied to the pseudo-sceptic.  I say this, because although the pseudo-sceptic rejects all reports as false, the cryptozoologist patently does not accept all reports as true.

I certainly do not accept all testimonies, films, photographs and sonar readings as proof of the Loch Ness Monster and I suspect every cryptozoologist to a man and woman does not accept them all either; be it Nessie, Champ, Ogopogo or Caddy. The other point is that, unlike pseudo-sceptics who rate all reports as 100% false, not all sightings, photos, films or sonar are created equal in the eyes of the cryptozoologist.

Cryptozoologists (such as myself) will rate recordings or reports in different manners. One may believe a photo to be genuine, but only just at 51% whereas another may go up to 80%. Cryptozoologists will disagree over whether something if genuine, fake or misidentified. That is called healthy debate, whereas the one size fits all rejection of the pseudo-sceptics has a stale unanimity - you know well in advance what their "conclusions" are going to be.

But one may retort that a pseudo-sceptic could not accept even one report as genuine as that would put them in danger of becoming a "believer". That point is conceded, but they can still mark the better attested reports as "inconclusive" or "I can't explain that" rather than being compelled to offer strange explanations about cormorants at 20 yards.

But to be truthful, charges of prejudice in assessing reports is a problem across this divide. I admit I will have a degree of bias in my investigations. It is my job to minimise this universal human failing in me to the best of my ability. What I cannot stomach is these vocal critics of the phenomenon not stepping up to admit they have it too. They are not Vulcans after all, but that is a problem they have to face and deal with. As an example, it was a joke to see one state his bias as being logical analysis. Can you see the contradiction in that phrase?

Are there any real Loch Ness Monster sceptics out there? Given human nature's foibles, I doubt the ideal sceptic exists, so I personally will remain neutral on the question of who comes closest. But the next time one of these people turns up on an Internet forum, in a magazine or book, just ask yourself what the underlying motive might be behind those criticisms they launch against reports of the Loch Ness Monster.


The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com





Monday 18 February 2019

Preview of the book "Photographs of the Loch Ness Monster"




My third book on the Loch Ness Monster is now published and can be purchased at these links for Amazon USA and UK. From the first photograph taken by Hugh Gray in November 1933 to the most recent by Ricky Phillips in December 2018, dozens of pictures are recounted and analyzed and pseudo-scepticism is confronted on the written page. Having said that, not all photographs have made it into the book and those may yet await a future and final publication. Indeed, there are pictures that may as yet be unknown or lost to sight, especially those from the 80s and 90s.

The subtitle, "The good, the bad and the ugly" denotes three types of photographs of the Loch Ness Monster. The good ones which genuinely portray the large creature of Loch Ness. There are the bad ones which are natural objects misinterpreted and then there are the ugly ones which are the products of hoaxers and fakers. I may not necessarily state what I believe to be good, bad or ugly and note that the dismantling of so called sceptical arguments is an analysis of them on their own merits or demerits.

Now by way of preview, I include an excerpt from the book concerning the Roy Johnston sequence of pictures taken in August 2002. Let me just say that these photos were, in my opinion, subjected to a masterclass in pseudo-sceptical debunking and as a consequence rejected by many in the cryptozoological community. It is now time to take a fresh look at them and those who sought to destroy their credibility. Let me quote from pages 299 and 306 of the book.


EXPERTS say an amateur could never have taken the remarkable pictures. Independent snapper John McLellan claims the pictures were almost certainly taken using a tripod. He added: "The background is the same in each of the eight frames."

The third objection I will now address concerns the statement that the sequence of images suggests the use of a tripod rather than the situation Mr. Johnston describes.  This is not a cogent argument which becomes apparent if you watched the animation sequence I produced from the thumbnails. If you watch how the hillside changes throughout the sequence, it is obvious that this is not the product of a tripod solidly taking the same background throughout as the opposite hillside judders by 13% horizontally and 3% vertically. 

Roy Johnston said he took the pictures from the camera hanging around his neck. Now take a look at the animation below produced from the eight images Roy Johnston took in total. Since the animation cannot be printed in a book, it is appropriate to reproduce it here. If this is the product of a stable tripod, then I marvel at the strange logic of these critics. More to the point, did they lie or were they just lazy in their assessment? You can make your own minds up on that one. Either way, these so called experts do not come out smelling of roses.



You will also notice the splash at the end of the sequence which many took as the creature re-entering the waters. That is actually not the case and does not seem to have been picked up by the various critics at the time. The splash is in fact some metres ahead of the last visible position of the creature. Compare the various positions of the creature and splashes against the hill in the background. This would suggest the animal merely slipped into the water and the splash is in fact tossed up from some subsequent and invisible underwater motion.

You may also note that the progression of the creature as it submerges in comparison to the hill takes it on a course to where the splash eventually appears. That would appear to be a strange thing to do if it was an alleged CGI overlay sequence.

I will say more about this sequence in my book, but this was an argument confidently put forward by Dick Raynor when he allegedly assessed these pictures. He dogmatically stated other arguments against these pictures which made me wonder how equally fragile those arguments were? You will find out more about these and the hatchet job employed by the gutter press in my book.

So, if you feel you have benefited from this blog over the years, then show your appreciation by buying this book. Have an enjoyable read!


The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com


Saturday 9 February 2019

Podcast Talk on the Loch Ness Monster

I had a two hour chat with Scott Mardis for his Monster X Channel a few days ago and we covered a wide range of subjects on the Loch Ness Monster. Scott is a knowledgeable person when it comes to Nessie and particularly on the creature he witnessed himself, Champ of Lake Champlain. He is also the creator of the popular Facebook group, The Zombie Plesiosaur Society.

Follow this link to hear us discourse on things aquatic, Scottish and cryptozoological.


The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com


Thursday 31 January 2019

Loch Ness eDNA results delayed

A few people have asked me about the results of last year's eDNA sampling at Loch Ness. It was presumed the results of the analysis would be imminent. However, an update from Andreas Muller states this from Professor Neil Gemmell: 

After sample collection was completed in June, a global team of scientists has been busy extracting DNA, sequencing genes, and sifting through international DNA databases to identify forms of life present in the famous loch. It was previously hoped the results would be available early this year, however, the analysis has taken longer than anticipated. Project lead, Professor Neil Gemmell, of the University of Otago now anticipates the work to potentially take another four months to complete.

So it looks like we're looking at perhaps May 2019 for publication of the results now. I still think there is a History Channel type documentary involved here, but I am speculating. 


The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com

Wednesday 30 January 2019

New Book on the Loch Ness Monster





It was last week that I finally went over to the National Library of Scotland and donated copies of my two books on the Loch Ness Monster. The donation form was filled in, the books dropped off and the emails arrived yesterday confirming they were now part of the library's panoply of Loch Ness Monster authors. The books are now accessible to the general public for years to come and further information on the books can be had here and here.

Which brings me to my upcoming third book on the creature. The first book was on the folklore of the beast, the second was on land sightings of the beast and now the subject is photographs of the beast. Not surprisingly, it is entitled "Photographs of the Loch Ness Monster" with the subtitle of "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly". That subtitle basically tells you that some of these pictures are genuine, some are misidentifications and some are fake. Of course, the debunkers will say they are all bad and ugly, that is their opinion and the aim of the 400 pages is to take a thorough look at the arguments for and against.




You can guess from the cover what some of the subject matter will be, I hope there will be something for everyone as over forty alleged pictures of the monster are covered. So, I hope to tie up the loose ends and get this book out some time in February. After that, it will be another visit to the National Library with another book.


The author can be contacted at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com