Thursday 12 June 2014

Gould's Five Photos

I found this clipping on a recent search of online archives. It is from the Aberdeen Journal dated 31st March 1937 concerning Commander Rupert T. Gould. We remember Gould as the first person to write the first serious book on the Loch Ness Monster in 1934 and thereafter held sway as the "go to" person on the subject until his death in 1948. 




It seems he was in demand as a guest on radio and public lectures on the subject and the item below advertises an upcoming radio talk. Gould mentions in a letter that he has five photographs of the Loch Ness Monster. The question for me and you is what were these five photographs? Feel free to add your comments!




Sunday 8 June 2014

The Mysterious "Footprints" of Loch Ness







While I was researching a previous article on the search for the elusive Nessie carcass, I came across this sonar image of the underwater contours of the loch. The author of the article bearing the image was the well known Robert Rines and he had been discussing his own quest for Loch Ness Monster bones in 2005. In the course of that article he said this: 

In addition to ROV-optically inspecting further sonar targets of this expedition, it remains for us to explore this year the further mystery of the lines of similar-dimension and uniformly spaced 10-meter diameter sonar targets - "circles," ("footprints") at 700 foot depth. These were first detected and published by our Klein team of 1976, and have strikingly been re-imaged on the '05 side-scan map at spaced intervals along both sides of the loch - northerly and southerly.

The anomalies he refers to can be clearly seen forming a line of vertical dots on the left hand side of the image. The black strip in the middle is the blind spot below the side scan sonar device. My estimates suggest this sonar image was produced around the area marked in the map below, a few miles south of Foyers.




Robert Rines refers to a series of sonar images discovered by the Klein team back in the mid 1970s during the famous (or infamous depending on your point of view) Academy of Applied Science expeditions of yore. These were described as stone circles and that particular story can be found in Meredith's 1977 book, "Search at Loch Ness". 

Marty Klein speculated that these could be submerged megalithic constructs and they were even dubbed "Kleinhedge I" and "Kleinhedge II" referring to structures found at depths of 30 and 70 feet respectively. These are depicted below from 1976 images.



It has since been speculated that these are in fact more recent artifacts created by dredging operations. How that was deduced and how that would form circles I would like to know but Klein tells us that divers went down and identified them as stones formed in a circle.

However, that does not mean they are megalithic in origin (which Klein admitted) and one wonders if operations during the creation of the Caledonian Canal 200 years ago or the widening of the A82 road in the 1930s are more relevant?

Be that as it may, Robert Rines in our 2005 sonar image links the two. I am not sure if that is the only conclusion to be drawn. The line of anomalies we see is south of Foyers but Klein's objects were over 10 miles away to the north at Lochend.

Moreover, Rines places them at a depth of 700 feet. That in itself would be extraordinary but I doubt that is true and think this is a typographical error based on the fact that the maximum depth in that area is nearer 600 feet. The sonar plot that came with the image suggests something less than 600 feet but still very deep.

So what could be responsible for this line of "footprints"?  When one comes across a mystery at Loch Ness, then one may be inclined to implicate our famous denizen of the Ness deeps. But at this point, I cannot think of a reason why the Loch Ness Monster(s) would indulge themselves in the habit of digging out a line of depressions (or mounds) for miles. Readers are welcome to come up with a theory.

By coincidence, and just before I read the Rines article, I was at Loch Ness speaking to one of the operators of the Loch Ness Project cruise boats. I asked what was current in their research and he raised this very topic. He mentioned that it may be underwater operations linked to the Foyers Power Station.

Foyers Power Station was first constructed as part of the aluminium works built in 1896 and survived its closure in 1971 to be upgraded and form part of Scotland's hydro-electric scheme. How that could be linked to surface anomalies deep down is not clear to me. If they are 600 feet down, then they will be difficult to examine and Robert Rines' ROV operations do not mention them in detail.

I wonder if they have their origins in World War II operations at the loch? What that could be and how it would survive decades of silting is not clear to me. It is a mystery at Loch Ness and we await further information and developments.

(Public Announcement: Can P.C. get back to me about the "painting" at lochnesskelpie@gmail.com)










Sunday 1 June 2014

Loch Ness Monster Sighting from 1889

I was in the library going over some old newspapers from the 1940s and followed up a reference to a sighting made over 120 years ago. The reference was made in The Encyclopaedia of the Loch Ness Monster by Paul Harrison who in turn refers to the Inverness Courier for the 16th January 1948.

It concerns a letter mentioned in the Courier from a man called H. J. Craig who was then living in  Western Australia. At the time of writing, Mr. Craig was probably around 70 years of age and recounted a tale when he was a boy fishing with his brother in a rowing boat near Urquhart Castle. The original clipping is reproduced below for your reading (click on each image to enlarge).




The original letter was published in the West Australian of 27th September 1947 and had been prompted by a recent sighting of the creature by two separate motoring parties, the Forbes and Macivers (published in the Inverness Courier on the 1st August 1947). A thumbnail of that Australian article is shown below with a picture of Urquhart Castle and a model of the ubiquitous plesiosaur.




What prompted Mr. Craig to write was how the witnesses had described seeing this dark object with multiple humps and a head cutting through the water at great speed in a manner similar to that day in 1889. Donald Maciver had described how "amazed they were at the amount of spray which rose off the water" as they kept pace with it in their car near Foyers. The whole affair lasted about ten minutes and the idea of a motor boat was dismissed due to the lack of noise and the certainty that no boat could attain that speed (presumably they were thinking of one of the normal boats and not a John Cobb type affair). Needless to say, there were no motor boats racing down Loch Ness in 1889.

Meanwhile, the Forbes were sitting by the shore east of Inverfarigaig when  they heard a splash and saw the creature heading south at speed. In similar words to the Macivers, Mr. Forbes saw "the water shearing off them (the humps) and sparkling in the sunlight". I am quite certain the two parties were witness to the same event on the loch.

At this point, I will intercept one sceptical comment that they merely saw a string of merganser birds or similar flapping hastily along the surface. However, to demonstrate the power of what they had seen, the "wash could be seen lapping the edge of the loch".  Moreover, the witnesses compared the object against the buses on the far side of the loch and concluded it was of a similar size. Those birds sure grow to some hefty sizes on Loch Ness.

But fifty eight years before a similar display of unsettling power sent a couple of Victorian boys speedily rowing for shore. Amazing what a hold simple birds had over local folk even before Nessie became a mania. I hope you being to see the inadequacy of such an avian explanation. Others may not, but they have no choice if they do not believe any large animal inhabits Loch Ness.

Well, that is not quite true, they could always default to calling all these people just mentioned liars. But any explanation which "sucks less" than the monster one is not necessarily an explanation either. Better to say nothing at all in those circumstances.

Finally, and in a manner similar to the Dinsdale hump, our monster seems to take pleasure in swimming in a most inefficient way by ploughing through the water. By what manner of propulsion this is achieved is a bit of a mystery since we have no monster to examine.

Such raw displays of dissipative power are rare and they have to be else the Loch Ness Monster would exhaust itself in short measure. For sure, no laws of physics are being broken in such an act  for submarines do this all the time when they travel at speed on the surface with a sizable portion of their bulk above water. But one wonders what motivates the monster to undertake this more difficult movement? Is it a defensive tactic against another Nessie? A courtship display to prove one's fitness to reproduce or just chasing fish?

For sure, animals will expend energy in often seemingly useless ways. I am still undecided whether this motion was flipper based or something akin to a squid's propulsion technique. Who knows, but between 1889 and 1947, it seems our favourite creature had not lost any of its natural force.








Friday 30 May 2014

Underwater Webcam Photos







Jay Cooney at the Bizarre Zoology blog gives a summary of various images captured by the now defunct underwater webcam run by Scotland Online. The original article is by Scott Mardis. The webcam was pulled back in 2003 and by all accounts seemed quite popular (I was too busy with toddlers to notice). There is an online petition you can sign to persuade the owners to put the webcam back online.

My own impression was the blurriness of the objects compared to the clear images of the underwater rocks and vegetation. That would suggest to me the objects are quite close to the camera and hence small. You can see the same feature with the close up blurry, green vegetation. The other problem is similar to the problem with the dog interpretation of the Hugh Gray photograph. Where is the rest of the body?

 






Sunday 25 May 2014

Loch Ness Trip Report (April 2014)




I was over at Loch Ness for a long weekend back in April and so I thought I would report the highlights here. I begin with the photograph above which was taken near the campsite I was based at. If you had walked along this beach about 45 years ago, you would likely have come across a man watching the loch with his tent nearby. That man was Frank Searle and though he is long gone, his story forms part of the often quirky mosaic that makes the Loch Ness Story so fascinating and attracts multitudes of visitors every year.

For me, there are usually four aspects to any trip to Loch Ness. The first is to try and get a glimpse and perhaps some footage of the creature itself. That, we could say, is the least likely objective to be fulfilled, whether one believes in the Loch Ness Monster or not.

With that in mind, the second objective is to try out new equipment and ideas whilst there. The third objective is to look into old cases to see what new information can be gleaned and the last objective is simply to relax and enjoy the beautiful area that is Loch Ness.

As regards the first objective, nothing was seen which would make me think there was a monster in close proximity. I guess I will have to try and be more gullible when I am next looking at birds,  passing pieces of wood or boat wakes!
There was one experiment I wanted to finish off and that was whether objects are just visible just below the loch's surface. My contention is that they are, but only to a small depth. There are some cases (but not many) where a large, dark shape has been reported as being visible just below the surface. The late monster hunter, Ted Holiday, had such an experience in the 1960s and this continues up to the present day with such cases as Jon Rowe. 

I had previously and conclusively tried this with a silver-grey tray, but now it was the turn of a matt black tray I acquired at the local Fort Augustus stores. The video below shows the tray visible in over a foot of shallow waters. The stones below provide a lighter backdrop to increase the tray's visibility. This contrast would tail off as one moved such a dark object into deeper waters.




This experiment was conducted at the site of the famous Lachlan Stuart photograph taken in 1951. I include a clip of that scene below. I visited this area a few times when writing a series of articles on that picture. The contention is that his three humps were merely hay bales but I have my doubts about the source of that story. But come rayn or shine, I will continue to defend that doubt. :)



Now there was one ongoing experiment I have to speak of, and that is trap cameras. I consider them a valuable tool in Loch Ness research and the more of them around the loch the better. I had previously given one to Steve Feltham but the other I placed a year ago on the other side of the loch road to see what was happening on the land rather than the loch. In other words, it was not looking at the loch. I was just curious to see what passed before its lenses.

I placed the camera in a good location in April 2013, but when I went back to get it in August 2013, I could not find it! The reason being that the hillside had become like a jungle  over the summer months and had become unrecognisable. Despite taking a picture of the location, I looked around for a good while to no avail. I concluded it had either been nicked or it was hidden under some vegetation.

So I let this previous winter have its way and reduce the undergrowth, but this return visit still turned up nothing. It may yet be there, but I do not intend to waste any more time on it. Some you win, some you lose. I'll buy a new set of trap cameras for deployment over the winter when I go up again in August. As I said, the more the merrier.

As readers may recall, I posted an article some weeks back on Nessie as land predator. I kept that thought in my mind as I walked along the shores of the loch, testing it against what I saw at Loch Ness. Interestingly, this field at Borlum Bay had a good supply of sheep for an adventurous Nessie!



On the subject of sheep, I did stumble across a sheep carcass near the Lachlan Stuart location and it presented a bit of a minor mystery. Perhaps not a monster class mystery, but more like a "how did it get there" mystery. The carcass was readily identified but the skeleton was about ten feet from the shore where there was wool tufts caught on branches.




So, what accounted for the distance between wool tufts and main body? Did the sheep somehow stumble from the shore line, catching its wool in the branches before expiring further in? Or did it die on the shoreline only to be dragged further in by a predator?

Quite how the sheep got there was a question itself. I was not aware of any areas of sheep grazing nearby. Perhaps the sheep died further up the shore in the shallows and floated to that point, later to be dragged in shore by a predator. If so, what animal can drag a full sheep carcass ten feet? Well, that is one for further speculation.

Talking about the dead, I was over the other side of the loch later on the trip and came across this curious sight by another part of the loch's shoreline. It was a rectangular arrangement of stones on three sides with the contours of the beach forming the fourth side. A cross made from branches was placed at the head of this "grave" at the far end of the photograph.



Was it a grave of some description or some area designated as "sacred" by somebody? I would hardly think anyone was buried there, but neither was I prepared to start digging! If anyone has an idea as to the possible purpose of this site, I would appreciate a comment.

Sadly, there are sights around the loch that are not mysterious and one would prefer were not visible. I refer to the garbage dumping that surreptitiously goes on annually around the loch. Some people regard Loch Ness as a gigantic waste bin. The photograph below was taken near Urquhart Castle.



I paid a visit to Steve Feltham after this and took in the lovely view from his home at Dores Bay. Note the lenticular cloud formation making its way over Loch Ness. Or should that be a fleet of flying saucers? After all, did not Frank Searle claimed to have once photographed a UFO flying over Nessie?!

Steve was busy putting up a wind turbine which powers his home and as we chatted a local friend of his turned up. Steve said his friend's mother lived just over the other side of Dores Bay and had a sighting back around 1992. She had looked out over the familiar sight of the bay one morning to see an object just under the surface swimming past. It was described as having a crocodile-like back and was estimated as being six feet long (the visible portion I presume). It was reported at the time, but the journalist seemed to have turned it into a crocodile sighting! Not quite the same thing.




After this, I dropped in on the local salmon farm and finally made contact with Jon Rowe, who took that interesting picture back in 2011. My presumption that the picture had been taken from the shore jetty was wrong. He was on the platform further out and closer to the cages. My one regret was that they did not have security cameras trained on the cages. My own feeling is that this place is a draw for Loch Ness Monsters who like a salmon or two. However, a short lesson on the structure of the cages suggested they would not be penetrable by our large denizen. It looks like Nessie is limited to window shopping when it comes to farm salmon.

EQUIPMENT

I was out again at night time with the infra red recording equipment to see if Nessie would pop up in the hours of darkness. However, I have to point out that even if she was ten times more likely to surface at night than at daytime, then the odds would still be around 2000 to 1 against a sighting for the duration and field of view in question. I ran the equipment at two sites for a few hours but I was beginning to like the idea of leaving it running longer term. How one achieves that without getting the equipment stolen or ruined by the weather will require some thought.

I bought two new pieces of equipment to try out for this year. The first was a Toshiba Camileo Clip recorder which was modified to record in the infra red for night use. Apparently, some ghost hunters like these devices. You clip it on to your jacket lapel, set it to record and it logs your activities as you move around the area putting your hands to other uses.

They are quite nifty devices which record at 1080p HD, 5x digital zoom, microSD card support and a resolution of 5MP. I suppose I would regard it as a human equivalent of a car dashcam; hook it up, start recording and get on with other tasks hands free.



The other item was a Trifield 100 XE electro magnetic field detector. This device detects and measures magnetic, electric and radio/microwave fields in three axes for more precise measurements. Now I am not exactly sure why I need this from a Loch Ness Monster point of view. If one was a paranormal investigator, it may be a required tool, but at Loch Ness, it was more a case of being curious as to how energy readings registered locally. 




Normally, one should not expect the needle to move much at all.  At home, it rose in the presence of an active microwave oven and close up to the house's fuse box. It would also rise slightly near electricity power lines. At Loch Ness, the needle barely moved (as expected), but in future, I intend to see how it performs at various selected areas.


OTHER THINGS

I popped over to Loch Ness Cruises based at Fort Augustus and boarded their well equipped Royal Scot boat. Some readers may recall that one of their crew, Marcus Atkinson, had an intriguing sonar hit back in September 2011, which I consider one of the best pieces of evidence for the Loch Ness Monster in recent years.



Apart from enjoying the trip up the loch, I was intrigued to have a look at their sonar-based seabed mapping Olex software, of which I show a shot below. One of the crew members, Ricky, explained more about it to me. The way it works is that it takes a continuous stream of readings from their Simrad sonar device. It is only interested in the depth readings, anything else is not important.

The computer software then translates that to a map location and adds that micro-contour detail to the overall map. Indeed, the map is a work in progress. The more sonar pings it processes, the more detailed the map becomes. We chatted about carcasses on the loch bed and he reckoned it could pick up such detail.



Ricky himself seems a bit of a character and has a few Nessie tales to tell. The most interesting was the time he was out kayaking when he looked at the water below him and saw a long neck, then a body and flippers and then a tail passed right under his vessel. I forgot to ask whether he subsequently broke all kayak speed records. Sceptics are free at this point to submit enraged comments about why he did not have a helmet video attached to his head!

Meanwhile, I waited in vain for a Jonathan Bright type water hump to appear on this cruise and another cruise I took in Urquhart Bay ...


At the Clansman Hotel, I also saw this old promotional poster for a Nessie comedy film made back in 1961. I reckon "What A Whopper!" cashed in on the Dinsdale film taken the year before. I bought this DVD some time back and I love those old Ealing type British comedies, so I enjoyed watching that genre include my other favourite subject matter. Nessie is depicted as green again. Why green?



So a busy enough time at the loch, but also time to relax. I hope to be back up later in the Summer and I wish all monster hunters at the loch success in the months ahead.


Wednesday 21 May 2014

Ted Holiday and the Exorcism of the Loch Ness Monster

Dr. Beachcombing at his folklore and history blog recounts the day Donald Omand tried to exorcise Loch Ness of any evil spirits. You can read it here.

The Doctor asked for and got some photographs of the event, but I can go one further and have found a video of the exorcism episode from the 1976 documentary "The Legend of the Loch". The bloke holding the bottle of water for Donald Omand is Ted Holiday himself. I believe this was actually a rerun of the ceremony as the BBC was not there for the initial run.Click here for the link.










Friday 16 May 2014

The Carcass Problem (Part 2)




Having looked at some of the dubious carcass stories from years and even centuries past at Loch Ness (as exemplified by the front cover above), we now look at the basic question - "Why has no Loch Ness Monster carcass been found yet?".

This question may sometimes be framed as a statement by sceptics. To wit - "A Loch Ness Monster carcass should have been found by now!". However, this issue is better framed as a question as I have seen no detailed or logical argument by anyone as to why such a statement should be true.

Back in the 1930s, it seemed a given that if there was a creature in Loch Ness, it would eventually be captured, dead or alive. By the time the 1960s came around with the Loch Ness Investigation Bureau, this gave way to more cautious hope. Now in the 2010s, one wonders if any prospect of a DNA find is on the cards.

But back to the problem. There are only two answers to the question. The first is that there are no carcasses to find. However, that answer can itself be subdivided into four categories. The first of the four is the position that there is no carcass because there are no monsters and never has been. The second is that the creature is a boneless invertebrate and so any body will be scavenged away in short measure. The third is that the Loch Ness Monster is a paranormal phenomenon and hence no carcasses are to be expected. The fourth is that Nessie is a regular visitor to the loch but not a resident and hence we again should expect no carcasses.

I won't dwell on these categories any further and readers may wish to comment on them below. The second answer to the question is simply that nothing has been found because researchers have not looked hard enough. That answer requires further explanation and subdivides into the nature of the beast, its environment and the search.

PROBLEMS WITH THE BODY

There are two ways to find a corpse, by accident or by design. Millions have visited the shores of Loch Ness in the past eighty years and no one we know of has stumbled upon any body part of any mysterious creature. Meantime, a far smaller group of divers have ventured in those waters since the nineteenth century. I have been sniffing round the shores of Loch Ness for decades and have detected nothing I would seriously present as evidence. That tale can be repeated multiple times for all Loch Ness investigators, named and unnamed.

However, it has to be said that I don't often see much of anything around the shores of Loch Ness. I stumbled upon a sheep skeleton on my last visit and it is a matter of unimportant speculation as to how it got there. Polling the statements of others largely bears this out. I asked long term monster hunter, Steve Feltham, what he has encountered from his home on Dores beach. His reply was:

"Deer that drown trying to swim the loch occasionally. We dont generally get fish on the beach, in fact in twenty years I cant recall a fish. One or two eels on their backs in shallow water, thats about it."

Another on site investigator, Dick Raynor, said this of things floating around:

"I have seen dead fish on the surface - there's a Roach on my website, I saw a salmon or trout floating around the bay here last summer and there was a dead sheep near the castle about 4 years ago. My suspicion is that most of the floating dead things were dead and floating before they entered the loch. In the case of corpses, they are sometimes found floating a couple of weeks after dying and it is assumed that they were lying in the shallows until they resurfaced."

So not much of even what is known to exist in Loch Ness is readily found. Perhaps there is some truth in that old legend about the loch never giving up its dead, which brings us to the murky depths below. Dick Raynor makes another statement on the death process at Loch Ness:

"The only large creatures regularly shot on Loch Ness seem to sink immediately, and I'm not aware of one ever being washed up. I refer, of course, to the seals."

I recently spoke to Gordon Menzies, a veteran of Loch Ness cruise ships, who added that a seal could remain afloat for a time if it was shot after taking in a lungful of air. But, in general, they sink and then it is what happens after that which has an impact on the carcass problem.

This absence of floating corpses is explained in terms of the rate of decomposition. In that regard, I would like to quote leading Loch Ness researcher, Adrian Shine, on the problems inherent in locating carcasses. This is taken from the 1976 Loch Morar Expedition report.

There are very few records of unidentified carcasses being found by Scottish lochs. Factors which may account for this are that Lochs Ness and Morar are deep, steep sided and cold (about 5oC below the thermocline). The cold would slow decomposition and allow time for scavengers such as eels to dispose of the remains. Gases, which did result from decomposition, would have their volume and buoyancy reduced by water pressure at depth. One cubic foot of gas at the surface would have a buoyancy of about 621bs but at a depth of only 32ft this would be halved, while at 200ft the buoyancy would amount to only about 8lbs.

The bodies of those drowned in Loch Ness are seldom recovered.  One would not expect the remains of fish living at depth to float. Many animals, which are secondarily aquatic, swallow stones, and it is believed that these may function as ballast. Plesiosaurs did this, as do crocodiles. Sea otters are examples of mammals with the same habit, as are seals, which may contain as much as twenty five pounds of stones. This may well cause a body to become negatively buoyant at depth when the air cavities are compressed. Cmdr. Cousteau has found "graveyards" of elephant seals and these bodies seem to have little tendency to float.

I would add my opinion that the scavenging task is increased by possible cannibalism amongst Loch Ness Monsters. I suspect this would be rare and confined to dead and dying animals. The Loch Ness Monster would certainly not be unique in this regard. Loch Ness Ferox Trout are well known for their predation of other ferox.

If these creatures are mainly benthic dwellers, then we should not expect any floating corpses. However, there are exceptions to the rule. If a creature died in the shallow shelf waters of the loch or a little deeper down amongst the clefts and the ridges of the littoral region, it is theoretically possible for them to remain there for a period of time and be more amenable to discovery. But since the behaviour of your typical dying monster is not known with any certainty, that must remain a matter of speculation.

For example, a dying, aquatic creature would have less energy to move itself up from the depths, let alone haul itself into shallow waters. To me, it seems more likely they would stay deep.


PROBLEMS WITH THE ENVIRONMENT

So what is it that prevents discovery of Loch Ness Monster bodies? In an answer, it is Loch Ness itself. I have already pointed out the decomposition problem, but what else hinders a search?

The most likely scenario for a discovery is that part of the creature which endures the longest. That would normally mean the skeleton. For the sake of argument, I will assume this would be an endo-skeleton. Now, there are two things that can happen to bones in Loch Ness. They can either be eventually broken down by the water's acidity or they can be buried in the silt. It is a matter of conjecture as to which process will claim the bones first.

In terms of acidity, Loch Ness researcher, Dick Raynor, had this to say:

"Exposed bones are not likely to survive for many years however as the calcium hungry loch water will cause them to dissolve and crumble in the slightly acid environment."

However, it is unclear how long it would actually take for a skeleton to be broken down. An experiment conducted by the Loch Ness Project in 1984 bears this out. A hessian sack containing beef bones was lowered to a depth of 200 metres and left there for a year. When it was brought back up, no discernible change in terms of bone dissolution was noticed. Clearly, this is a process that would take a number of years (depending on the thickness of the bones).

The question is further complicated if the creature has a cartilaginous skeleton. These bones are less dense than the bones we possess because in water they do not have to be so load bearing. You can find such bones in sharks, sturgeons and so on. As a consequence, these bones will break down faster than terrestrial ones. It is a bit of an irony that the sceptical idea that some sightings of the Loch Ness Monster may only be Atlantic Sturgeon also may suffer from lack of evidence due to the same problems!

The silt that blankets the sides and floor of Loch Ness also presents its own problems. A large number of rivers and smaller burns empty into the loch, bringing with them debris of varying sizes and composition (animal, vegetation and minerals). This continual flow of debris eventually settles into the sides or bottom of the loch where it will be further broken down into smaller particles over time. The higher water pressure of the bottom will also compress and compact the silt over the centuries.

Any larger object that gets caught in this process will get buried but how long that takes is variable. The rate of silt deposition depends on where you are in the loch and when. Clearly, the seasons of higher rainfall will drive debris into the loch at a faster rate and those areas nearest to water inflows will generally receive the greatest depositions.

Moreover, silt may accumulate on the higher ridges and shelves over the years but then cascade down into the deeps when a tipping point is reached. A study of sediment core samples taken in the 1990s by the Loch Ness Project suggest varying levels of sedimentation with a contemporary rate exceeding 1cm per year for the deeper waters of the North Basin.

Other core samples contained markers for the radioactive events of Chernobyl (1986) and the peak in atmospheric nuclear bomb tests (1963). These depths were given as 3cm and 9cm down respectively which suggest more recent depositions rates of 3 to 7 mm per year. A more historic core sample detected the 1868 great flood of Inverness at 30cm to 50cm depth which gives a deposition rate of about 4mm per year. Note that this one off event alone added up to 20cm of silt, probably enough to cover many carcasses.

One could take the contemporary rate of 1cm for further calculations, but it is acknowledged that not all parts of the loch are equal, so I will use the 4mm rate from the 124 year old flood example. So how long would it take the silt to normally bury a Nessie skeleton?

Not knowing what species the Loch Ness Monster may belong to, I will stick with a candidate whose skeleton is well known, the plesiosaur. The largest bone would be one of the main vertebrae and I doubt any of its dimensions would exceed 20cm. At a deposition rate of 4mm per annum, this, the last bone of the carcass would disappear after 50 years.

At our faster rate of greater than 1cm per annum, it is gone in 20 years. If an event akin to the 1868 flood occurs, it is probably covered in a matter of days. You perhaps begin to see how greater a problem this is on closer analysis.


PROBLEMS WITH THE SEARCH

But you may retort that there is more than one Loch Ness Monster and they must die on a regular basis, thus making them more amenable to a search. I would agree with you on that matter. Nobody knows when this creature entered the loch, but in the estimated 20 metres or more of deposits laid on the loch floor since the last Ice Age, there must be a good number of bones in varying stages of decomposition. Indeed, it is hoped that if the bones are encased in the clay quick enough before the slightly acidic waters totally breaks them down, there is a good chance of many examinable bones being found. I say that with a degree of optimism since I am not even sure if bones of known animals have been found in the various core samples collected over the last 20 years.





So let me indulge in some arithmetical speculation. If the loch contains a population of thirty monsters of varying sizes with an average lifespan of thirty years, then one carcass gets deposited every year. If it takes 50 years to completely silt over one carcass then this suggests there are fifty carcasses on the loch bed with varying degrees of exposure.

Concentrating on the floor of the loch and not the sides, the loch is 26 miles or 42 kilometres long and the width of the loch floor is at least half a mile or 0.8 kilometres. This gives an approximates floor area of 33.6 million square metres.

If we assume the area of the floor bed covered by a carcass is 10m by 1m, we get a carcass surface area of 10 square metres. Total up our fifty carcasses and we get no more than 500 square metres. This means the carcasses cover 0.0015% of the total floor of the loch. The probability of a ROV or diver submerging and alighting on one of these carcasses by chance is therefore about 1 in 67000.

Even if a ROV started at one end of the loch with a lit up search area radius of two metres and went to the other end of the loch, the odds of seeing anything is still 200 to 1 against. I am not aware of any such vehicle coming close to achieving this task in practise.

I am not saying this is the most accurate calculation, but in terms of showing the magnitude of the task, I think it has done its job. The bottom line is that it could be one, ten or a hundred carcasses lying on the loch floor or even none. It all depends on the population and its birth and death rates, though one would assume the two rates are nearly equivalent for a stable population.

However, since you or I do not know what this creature is, then it is not the Loch Ness Monster we are critiquing, but the various models put forward to explain it, and there are plenty of them! Indeed, there are monster theories that predict zero or next to zero carcasses. If anyone tells there "should be carcasses", ask what model they are using and why.


DREDGING AND OTHER TECHNIQUES

Of course, the odds could be improved by dredging up tonnes of the loch floor and panning for bone debris like gold prospectors. Sticking to our one a year carcass assumption, that gives an upper limit of 1000 carcasses buried in the sediment over the last one thousand years. If 1000 years of silt deposition gives us 2 metres of clay then the search volume is about 67 million cubic metres.

If a typical carcass takes up 10 cubic metres then the probability that a dredged up volume of 10 cubic metres contains anything is 6700 to 1 against. Of course, it is possible that the bones may generally be scattered over a wider area. Readers may wish to comment on whether that makes any difference whatsoever to the search.

Now some kind of dredging was attempted by the Loch Ness Investigation Bureau in the 1960s or 1970s. I have no idea how deep or wide that experiment went, but based on these odds, I doubt they had much chance of success.

Today, the sediments of Loch Ness are regarded as something of a scientific treasure trove for other reasons. The lack of water movement on the loch floor means sediment is laid in an orderly chronological fashion and hence provides a valuable natural journal of local and global events stretching back at least to the last glaciation and possibly beyond. In that light, it is unlikely we are going to see any serious dredging operations.

Attempts to search the loch for carcass material has been ongoing for decades, though it has tended to be haphazard, sporadic and limited to the shallower side regions. Anyone who goes down 200 metres to the floor of the loch for a sustained search is going to be susceptible to the bends without careful decompression procedures.

The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that any activity on the bed of the loch may stir up the sediment into impenetrable clouds of silt. Any search would have to be careful to maintain a certain height above this volatile surface.

Underwater searches of the loch bottom certainly go as far back as Operation Deepscan in 1987 when Osprey low light video cameras were sent down to investigate sonar hits.  Hours of observation were achieved with no "monster" success. However, it is to be noted that next to nothing at all was observed on the fine silt surface. Only the occasional twig was observed, not even logs were seen. If your search can't even find a common log, how can you expect to find a Nessie skeleton?

That lack of observation of even presumed common objects was somewhat rectified in later expeditions. A number of visits to the loch with remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) have occurred in subsequent years (see clip below). If a sum of the total operational hours on the loch bed could be added up over the last 25 years, one may begin to get an idea of how close or far they have got to beating the long odds.




But note, operational hours does not equate to productive searches. Most forays into the loch have been primarily for the purposes of testing equipment, not monster hunting. If the ROV merely dropped to the bottom but did not move around much and focused on testing its robot arms, that is of little use.

THE 2005 RINES SEARCH

In practise, the one expedition that caught my interest was the 2005 search by Robert Rines, his Academy of Applied Science team and others. A summary of their search was presented to the Oceans 07 conference in Aberdeen seven years ago. Armed with a side scan sonar, some ROVs and underwater video cameras, they towed the transducer down the loch at a depth of 150 feet looking for targets of interest as it mapped the bottom and sides. Presumably anything above the transducer was not recorded (hence it was not a whole loch scan as some aver).

From this, they identified over one hundred objects of interest, which brings us to the first point. Sonar does not distinguish between skeletons and known debris that litters the loch. The normal gas filled cavities that register strong signals with living animals are not present and even decomposition gases will be short lived and small at greater depth. Doubtless, there were other sonar features which were more numerous and deemed not of interest. There appears to be a high noise to signal ratio in what was essentially a loch contour inspection.

One sonar hit was described as resembling straight long neck vertebrae. When the ROV got there, it was nothing more than staggered layers of shale rock. Other hard signals from under the Horseshoe Scree proved to be massive rock cliffs and chasms dropping to 600 feet below. So the second point is that multiple echoes from the sides were causing so much ambiguity as to make interpretation of the images difficult.

It was not stated how many of the one hundred targets were located in this potentially ambiguous zone of interpretation. Perhaps they would have more luck on the flat bottom. Below is a sonar hit at 112 feet and the corresponding tree trunk that was found by the ROV. Admittedly, this was well off the maximum depth of the loch, but it demonstrates the sonar potential.




Does this surface mapping approach reduce the long odds mentioned above? Yes it does, depending on the resolution and interpretation of the images. Assuming the axes on the sonar image are in metres, that would suggest that objects down to our 20cm vertebrae would be on the borderline of resolution. The problem is our hypothetical bone would not be readily distinguished from a 20cm stone or lump of wood and so there would be a drain on resources investigating each one.

So, it appears that Robert Rines' strategy was to look for larger, whole carcasses where some degree of structure definition could guide precious ROV deployment time. This particular tree trunk arrangement covered a length of about 14 metres - a good monster sized target. Whether any of those one hundred or more targets was a carcass is a moot point. The point being that unless a diver or ROV is sent down and comes back with a sample, it is all conjecture.

As it turns out, one of the ROVs went AWOL and the other two had to be diverted into finding it. Because of this, only a few targets were investigated before they had to pack up and go. Some might say that the Loch Ness Hoodoo struck again but it would have been interesting to have seen what was made of these other targets. In fact, just seeing the candidate sonar images would be a start!

I would also liked to have known whether there was any targets in the deepest parts of the loch and how signal attenuation affected interpretation of sonar returns.  Also, as a control experiment, it would have been interesting to see if any seal, human, sheep, cow or deer bones were found. After all, if you can't find them, it is unlikely you will find rarer Nessie bones. All in all, this was an expedition which showed promise but events constrained them. Nevertheless, future ventures of this kind may yet be fruitful.

CONCLUSIONS

Talk of finding Loch Ness Monster skeletons has always been a bit of a subjective affair. Critics tend to issue words like "should have" or "must have" without giving any solid reasons why. I hope the numbers above give a sense of the magnitude of the task. But looking to the future, the task of going to the bottom of the loch to conduct an intensive search is an unlikely event.

Past searches have always been thin and opportunistic due to lack of funds. If that was the way it was when the climate was more receptive to a monster in the loch, what will it be like in this more sceptical environment?  Let's just say I am not holding my breath.

Monster hunters such as myself, Gordon Holmes and others cannot carry the can on this. The loch bed is hundreds of feet below us and those that have influence are not going to help us in any attempt to dredge something up. If one invested in diving equipment, then side searches along the shallower regions offers some chance of finding something. But with over 50 miles of shoreline going down to a searchable depth of 70 feet, this could become a thankless task.

But perhaps there is another route in the search for traces of the Loch Ness Monster. I am referring to the recent advances in DNA analysis. A year or so back, it was revealed that a Dutch study had managed to discover the various species resident in a number of lakes by examining their DNA traces in a sample of water. To put it in their own words:

Freshwater ecosystems are among the most endangered habitats on Earth, with thousands of animal species known to be threatened or already extinct. Reliable monitoring of threatened organisms is crucial for data-driven conservation actions but remains a challenge owing to nonstandardized methods that depend on practical and taxonomic expertise, which is rapidly declining. Here, we show that a diversity of rare and threatened freshwater animals—representing amphibians, fish, mammals, insects and crustaceans—can be detected and quantified based on DNA obtained directly from small water samples of lakes, ponds and streams.

We successfully validate our findings in a controlled mesocosm experiment and show that DNA becomes undetectable within 2 weeks after removal of animals, indicating that DNA traces are near contemporary with presence of the species. We further demonstrate that entire faunas of amphibians and fish can be detected by high-throughput sequencing of DNA extracted from pond water. Our findings underpin the ubiquitous nature of DNA traces in the environment and establish environmental DNA as a tool for monitoring rare and threatened species across a wide range of taxonomic groups.

So how applicable is this technique to the mysterious animals of Loch Ness? The first problem is to decide what constitutes Nessie DNA. Since it is not known what this might be, the analysis of any sample would have to eliminate the known species and see what is left. Anything which is unknown would clearly be of great interest and could at least be compared to species with similar DNA sequences.

The second problem is whether the vastness of Loch Ness and the potential Nessie biomass makes sampling possible. Loch Ness may be more oligotrophic than the lakes tested for this sampling technique and hence less suitable. The way ahead here would be to first of all test whether all known species are indeed detectable using this procedure.

Finally, samples would have to be taken from various locations underwater since it is also not known where these creatures are most likely to frequent. So we are talking here about samples from the open pelagic regions, the littoral, abyssal and benthic regions.

Undoubtedly, this would cost thousands of pounds to process. Who would foot that bill? The ideal people, in my opinion, would be the owners of the exhibition centres who take in revenues of millions of pounds per annum because of this mystery. Will any of this happen? At this point in time, I have no confidence it will.

Depending on your preferred model of the Loch Ness Monster, there may be zero or more bodies awaiting discovery. If no bones are found after intensive searches, that certainly puts any vertebrate model of the Loch Ness Monster under pressure. To others who believe in no monsters, paranormal monsters, invertebrate monsters or travelling monsters, this will merely serve to strengthen their position.